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NBA Draft 2017 Big Board



Tier 1 - relatively good chance @ All-NBA impact


High floor, DeAngelo Russell-esque, big time shot maker. Great scorer on pick and rolls, which will be his main strength in the NBA. Shot above 50% from 2 on 12.5 shot attempts per game, and 41% from 3 on five attempts per game. Free throw percentage is lower than it should be (65%) but will improve. Underrated passer, will be a full time point guard (high assists per 100 possessions) when playing with above average teammates in the NBA. Doesn’t turn the ball over often. Defensively, I’d be shocked if he is anything above a +1 guy, even with his size. Maybe that was just due to a lack of effort on a shitty team, has decent tools. Overall, as a prospect, checks all the boxes you could want. High floor, high ceiling.




Tier 2 - relatively good chance @ All-Star impact


One of the most NBA ready guys I’ve seen, makes big plays, deep range makes up for low shot form, gifted passer, no doubt will learn to be at least average defender considering size and BBIQ. Cannot think of a pure NBA comparison, maybe prime Shaun Livingston (hate those Jason Kidd ones). The main worry I have for him is his ability to be a shot creator for himself in the pick and roll or iso. With his release, slow shot and no in-between game, he’ll struggle in that aspect. This is why he truly might be best as an off guard in the half-court considering he can’t create for himself and has no iso scoring ability.

Also one of the most NBA ready guys I’ve seen, tremendous shot maker and taker, reminds me of prime Danny Granger (s/o Johnathan Tjarks). Always in the gym getting better, love that. Defense will always be spotty but will be able to more than make up for it offensively, will be a ball-stopper but not to a Carmelo-like degree. Better athlete than given credit for, will be an above average athlete in the NBA. Shot 50% from 2 on 8 and a half shot attempts per game there, with a free throw rate of 38%. He shot 85% from the line, there is no doubt his three point shot (34%) will improve given time. The only worry is who he’s guarding on defense, if it’s a 3 or a 4. Unsure if he will ever be able to guard either effectively. Might be a liability in situations in the playoffs because of it. Update 5/24 - Moved him up a few spots after seeing some more shooting numbers on him. Synergy has his off the dribble mid-range jumper percentage as being 37%, which does not bode well considering that shot was supposedly his bread and butter. Alternatively, I just watched a video of him nailing 18 straight 3’s from NBA range. So who really knows, scouting is a crapshoot.

Slightly more polished Andrew Wiggins with similar ceiling/floor. Slightly better 3 pt shooter but otherwise worse offensive player. Might be less long as well. Better pure instincts as a player and shot blocker especially. My favorite quality in him though is his passing, which could be so vital to his improvement as an NBA player. Not as great of a defender as he’s made out to be, prone to lapses and blow-bys, but effort is usually there and potential definitely is. No doubt can be an Andre Iguodala-esque player for great team.




Tier 3 - relatively good chance @ high-end starter impact with moderate chance @ All-Star impact


Exceptional athlete. Underachieved in college. Russell Westbrook-esque energy, although not that caliber. Got to the rim at will in college (had a higher FTr than De’Aaron Fox at 47%). Has shown flashes of a complete game but very rarely. Better jumper than given credit for, shot 41% on NBA range 3’s in college on 37 shots. Can be great defender (as evidenced by good steal and block rates), although I doubt it. Has some Baron Davis to him. Has HUGE range for his ceiling/floor. Question becomes if he puts it all together. I think he can.

One of the best college scorers in recent memory. Incredible shooter, although rarely off screens which is most important part of NBA game. Can shoot with a hand in his face from 35+ feet out. Better finisher than given credit for, not one-dimensional offensively. Shooting is the second most translatable skill from college to the pros (behind rebounding), so I think he has a high floor at the next level. Defensively at the next level is a different story. Would have to guard 1s bc of slight frame, which means many teams would be at a disadvantage if they do not have perfect defensive situations to hide him. Can turn into a decent defender but will never be great. Best comparisons I can think of are Lou Williams, Kevin Martin, and (my favorite) Eric Gordon.

Great potential. Shooting will translate to the next level, as he had a high free throw rate (47%) along with a good percentage (78%). Only shot 35% from three but given time will be a respectable shooter at the NBA level. Has great size and length, will fit in right away athletically. NBA floor is Jeff Green, with a little more defensive potential. Has all the tools to become a lock-down defender considering his size, length, and atheticism, although I would doubt he ever is more than a +1 or +2 guy on that end. He can be great but something about him just screams apathetic. I never felt as if he could dominate or impose his will on the game, like any of the top 7 guys do. He fits well in the modern NBA but I think the top 7 guys are just better prospects than Isaac.

Used to think he was Elfrid Payton, now I think he’s Tony Parker. Incredibly quick and fast. Might be able to beat a defender going under a pick just because he’s quick enough to. Has an absolutely terrific floater. In-between game is great, mid-range jumper is there, just can’t shoot from three. Good size, just a little small but will bulk up. Good defender, will be a +1 or +2 guy defensively in his prime. Willing competitor, which is a quality I love to see because that means he will try his ass off when he’s on the court and be in the gym getting better constantly. If he can learn to shoot he might be better than Fultz/Lonzo.

Insane upside as a two-way player. 6’3 combo guard (natural 2) who might be able to develop as a point with some pick and roll upside (http://www.sportschannel8.com/top-8-nba-acc-prospects-part-2/) . Long as hell with a 6’10 wingspan plus 40.5 inch vertical leap. Shows promise as a shooter, shot just 35.5% from 3 but 80% from the line and supposedly shot the ball very well in Combine drills and team workouts. Has great defensive potential with his length and athleticism, and a great steal rate, averaged more than two steals a game (I know that’s inflated with the Louisville defense but not nearly like the Syracuse zone). Gets to the basket a ton but isn’t a good finisher (relatively low free throw rate + only shot 46 from 2Pr). Has a lot of tools of a great player and a lot of potential but there’s another question of BBIQ with him, and if he couldn’t learn it under Pitino then will he? Poor shot selection at times, but you have to question how much that was due to the lack of offense at Louisville. He’s a cross between Marcus Smart and Dion Waiters with his confidence, athletic tools, and skillset offensively, and that is absolutely a guy you’d want to have in the NBA.




Tier 4 - relatively good chance @ above average starter impact


Big, strong, athletic natural point guard. 7 foot wingspan on 6’6 frame. Has a little bit better shooting touch but slightly worse defensively. Also struggles with being a pure point guard, turns the ball over a lot, unsure whether or not he will ever get there offensively. Has all of the tools you could want in a prospect. Similar questions with Dennis Smith Jr. I’m just worried that he’ll fall into the same category as the other big point guards who can’t shoot and who didn’t play college ball like Emmanuel Mudiay and Dante Exum. Although Mudiay still can get better and Exum has turned into an important guy for the Jazz in the playoffs, these guys were still relative busts. I think the same worries apply for Ntilikina.

Not impressed. What separates him from Andrea Bargnani outside of maybe a better three point shot? I understand big guys that can shoot and handle the ball are in high demand in today’s NBA but I don’t think he can defend / rebound well enough to make it worth it. It’s a real toss up for me because having a 6’10 42% potential three point shooter can be such a weapon for a great team, especially one who can create off the dribble a little. I just think he will allow defensively as much as he will produce. Had a worse rebounding percentage than Miles Bridges. His best position in the NBA is probably the 4 but he’s not quick enough to cover tweeners and not big enough to cover bigs. I think he’ll be Channing Frye for his career. Update 6/17 - After doing some more research on him, I don’t hate him as much as I did earlier. The entire question with Lauri is about that shooting. If he can be a >40% shooter he’ll be a +2 or +3 guy on the offensive side of the ball and he’ll have a long career. If he can’t… I think he’ll be out of the league.

Think he is the best center in the draft. More athletic, better rebounder, equal offensive game to someone like Justin Patton. Prone to foul trouble, took him out of the most important game of his life. Very efficient shooter, got to the free throw line a TON (shot 74%) although played against lesser competition. Terrific rebounder, can’t use WCC schedule to hurt him here as he had 7 boards (3 offensive) against UNC in 14 minutes and 13 rebounds against South Carolina in 23 minutes. Has potential to add three point shot but not sure how much it’d improve his game considering he’s so good inside. Hassan Whiteside-esque passer (very bad). Defensively is a different story, as he’d get torched in pick and roll defense in the NBA in the beginning, and would be too small to guard bigs who actually go in the post. Luckily I think over time he’ll grow into his body and be able to use his length to guard true bigs and his athleticism to guard smalls relatively well. Has potential to grow into more of a rim protector role over time considering he has a high block percentage. Maybe a little Steven Adams to him?

Has so much versatility and potential as a great defender. Could very well reach a point where he can guard 1 through 5 and not be a net negative on offense. Right now can barely shoot, has no handle, and few ways to score outside of out-muscling smaller guys. However, defensively he has all the tools in the world. Rumored 7’6 wingspan. Incredible quickness and foot speed. Has better steal rate than De’Aaron Fox with a good block rate. Only nineteen years old. At the next level, already progresses as an Andre Roberson type with a higher ceiling both offensively and defensively. However, after returning for his sophomore season at Indiana he didn’t experience the growth scouts were hoping. Three point shooting went down by 15% on almost three times as many attempts. Free throw percentage increase slightly. Seemed to be the same player except with a bigger role on offense and defense.




Tier 5 - relatively moderate chance @ average starter impact


7th youngest player in the NCAA this year, and was an absolute beast defensively. UCLA defended great at the rim all season, and most of the reason why is Anigbogu. I hate using flawed defensive statistics as anything other than a baseline but had a Defensive Box +/- of 3.5 and a DRtg of 98.4, which are both pretty good. Those stats are glaringly flawed in the college game (and the NBA game but to a lesser extent) but he even passes the eye test. 6’10 250, plays up to his size, knows his role offensively and defensively. Stat-wise, 17% TRB% and 8.8 block percentage, both pale in comparison to Zach Collins, although Collins did play against lesser competition, so that cancels out. Will be a good PnR defender regardless and has the potential to simultaneously protect the rim. Can be a +4 defender while being a good rebounder offensively. He’d be his best bringing a type of Tyson Chandler-esque approach to the game.

The ideal player for the modern NBA. 6’10 with a 7’4 wingspan, weighs 225, has an NBA body although needs to buff up just a little. Offers a lot of positional versatility - can play the three in big units or the 5 in super small groups. Solid NBA athlete who can sky for boards and lobs. Can shoot the three with precision as he shot 40% from the three point line in a good Serbian league. More of a straight-line driver but has shown some ability to use his handle to create, although with little success. Can defend guards in space with his athleticism, although he is more of a bouncy athlete than a quick one. Underrated passer who can make plays a secondary playmaker, although would probably be better as a tertiary passer or making a play as the roll man in PnR. Can protect the rim some as a weakside shot blocker with his explosive hops, although as the primary rim protector struggles with FG% at the rim. Also, the last 2 guys who won the Adriatic League Prospect of the Year award before Bolden? Nikola Jokic and Dario Saric. Let me summarize all this: 6’10 athlete who can shoot from deep, attack the rim off a closeout, stick with guards on D, and protect the rim. He’s not perfect but this kind of skillset is legitimately perfect for the way the NBA is trending. He’s got a number of weaknesses, but none of them outweigh his potential. He struggled at UCLA before he left to play internationally, with a lot of concerns about his maturity and attitude. By all accounts, these concerns have improved since playing overseas. He’s already 21 and a half, which isn’t ideal but could be a lot worse. Has a high turnover rate for how little he really makes plays and his FT% is low, but I believe in Jonah Bolden. So tough to find a comparison for this guy but he’s got some Rasheed Wallace to him.

HUGE fan of his game. Brings everything you could possibly want from a center in today’s NBA. Not the tallest or the best wingspan but still a unbelievable shot blocker with crazy athleticism. Can guard smalls on switches. The main knock on him is age, but that just means you might not pick him up for his second contract just because his game relies solely on athleticism. Offensively, doesn’t bring much besides an energy guy. The type of guy who can play in the playoffs and not get exploited at all. Shot 70% from the line. Grabbed a very high percentage of rebounds on a team with good rebounders for their positions. Already might be as good as Larry Nance, and could immediately contribute for a good team. I think he is very underrated by other rankings, and that’s only because of his age. **This was written in early May when he was being underrated, now everyone is high on him but I was on him first :(

Not much is available on him yet, but I’ll say this: he’s a 7’2 center who moves like a guard. He’s a better athlete than Kristaps and probably Gobert too. I usually think that big centers just can’t stick with guards on switches (which is nearly 50% of a center’s job in the current NBA) but he is going to be an exception. He is such a fluid athlete for his size it’s insane. Also has guard skills, can shoot the three a little bit too, good post game, good offensive player. He’s got a ways to go to bulk up (seems like most international big man do) but he’s got high potential, especially as the game is moving away from low post brutes who would be able to body him. Kind of old at 21 and a half. Not a great rim protector or rebounder, probably in part due to his bulk but I don’t expect him to ever really become great at either. I just think the odds of finding what amounts to a 7’2 2-guard is like catching lightning in a bottle. He may never be good enough for the NBA but that kind of skillset is so much more unique than someone like Tyler Lydon. I guess a comparison would be like a bigger Frank Kaminsky or Justin Hamilton, although he’s probably a better athlete than both.

Ideal size for a wing at 6’7 although wingspan leaves a little to be desired (6’9). Spot-up shooter archetype with some good defensive indicators considering his size and athleticism. Started out the year shooting 39% from 3 against professionals in Australia, but finished the year only shooting 31%. Shot only 60% from the line on a limited number of attempts (less than one per game). Not really a driver with the ball, although he tries to be. He apparently went out there and played well enough to have the coach talk him up to scouts, which is something to say about an 18 year old kid playing professionally. I don’t think he’s anything to write home about now but he’s a young kid with great size and has his role as a 3&D guy set in stone. Give me James Ennis / Rodney Hood.

Not even 20 yet as a sophomore which helps him. Good size at 6’10, bad wingspan at 6’11. Crazy efficient from the field, especially at the basket, which is saying something against ACC big men. Got his free throw percentage up to around 75% on more shots (albeit lower FTr). Great rebounding percentages and numbers. Everything about him screams offensive efficiency. Defensively is another story. He’s a great athlete for his size but doesn’t really always show it off in game. Played center in college but I’m unsure if he’s a full-fledged 5 in the NBA considering he doesn’t know how to protect the basket. I love playing guys a position up to create mismatches, but as a big you have to be able to space the floor or protect the rim and he does neither. Maybe he has the tools to defend down the road but I don’t see it, not a great shot blocker, not great positionally. I hate win shares but defensive win shares are down on him. I just don’t see him being a great defender. I think he’ll be a solid Jordan Hill.

Know exactly what you’re going to get out of him. I don’t think his shooting was a fluke whatsoever, because he consistently took tough shots and made them, which shows he has faith in his jumper. 48% of all shots were from 3 for 37%, which isn’t great but isn’t bad either. Shot 75% from the line, which is another clear indicator he improved as a shooter. You can expect a slight reduction in shooting percentages at the next level, but I think he will be an above average shooter. Also has a great in between game with crazy floaters and push shots with a hand in his face. Will be a good scorer in the league when he reaches his prime. Good size for a 3 at 6’8 and a solid defender, albeit limited athletically. No chance of guarding 4’s or 2’s consistently, so he is in a perfect position, Doesn’t really get to the line as much as you would like, probably in part due to a lack of athleticism to get by his man. I like the comparison to TJ Warren with a better jump shot.

6’4 combo guard with a 6’7 wingspan. Very skilled basketball player who can score at all three levels with great shot creation abilities. Played point guard for Colorado and showed solid playmaking abilities with a 28.6 AST%, the same as De’Aaron Fox, although he might cap off as a secondary playmaker in the half court. Decent enough athlete who is bouncier than he looks. Shot nearly 40% from 3 and 81% from the line, along with finishing 62% of his layups. Defensively, might struggle, but length, competitiveness, and athleticism are all positive indicators that he can become net neutral on that end of the court. Not a great ball handler in iso situations, as he’s more of a catch and shoot guy, so that’s a small area he could improve. The only qualities he has going against him are his age and his path to Colorado. He’s already 23 years old, which I believe makes him the oldest prospect in the draft. Also, he started as a D2 player, which I guess one could argue that is why he is a risky prospect who could flop. I don’t agree, as I have a soft spot for guys that can shoot, attack, pass, and defend. White can play. I think he’ll find a spot in the league for the long run. **When I originally made this scouting report, I forgot to include a comparison. NBADraft.net had E'Twaun Moore, so we're going to roll with that.




Tier 6 - relatively good chance @ role player impact


Much higher on him as a prospect than most other evaluators. Lessort is a 6’9 center with a great feel for the game. He knows his role, dives hard on pick and rolls, and does the dirty work. Not the most skilled finisher but has a good touch inside, along with being an explosive lob catcher and rim runner. Great athlete vertically, good one horizontally, who knows how to use his frame to defend in space. Efficient weak-side help defender and shot blocker while being a good rebounder in limited minutes. He’s a modern NBA big man, although you’re probably hoping for some more perimeter defense in the mold of prospect Jordan Bell. Now, Lessort isn’t a perfect prospect. He can get tunnel vision often and has very little passing chops, along with being prone to turnovers inside. He’s also a little old for a prospect at 21.5, although that won’t kill him. I really think Lessort can one day make a difference for a good team. He’s a bit of a smaller Clint Capela.

Not much to be said that isn’t already widely known. Huge potential but major injury concerns. Assuming no injuries, very athletic big who can play elite defense and rim run on offense. Great rebounding numbers, although I don’t know how much of that is by design for Duke’s system (Tatum’s rebounding numbers were not very good for a full time 4, so I’m assuming K let his guards/wings leak out). However, his college stats leave a lot to be desired. Only shot 57% from the field, 50% from the line. Defensively was good but not as elite as expected. Coach K barely played him, and there has to be a reason for that. I will admit these numbers are probably down because of his injuries, but that does not bode well for getting drafted. I think he needs a patient front office with a great medical staff to get him back to the player he can be. Can only judge him based on his ceiling because his floor is some scrub playing in Russia right now. Ceiling is somewhere near Dwight Howard. I don’t think we’ll hear a lot from him in the NBA.

True 7 footer with length and guard skills. Can shoot the three effectively. Very young at 18.5 and has so much talent to be molded. Can handle a little bit, make the right pass, attack closeouts, finish around the basket. Defensively, good instincts on rotations, can stay with smalls on switches, can read the passing lanes. However, there is so much yet to be proven, still VERY raw. He needs to bulk up big time. Averaged barely over three minutes per game in the Lithuanian Euroleague. My entire opinion of him changes if he gets drafted by a good organization with time to develop him. Can turn into the Serge Ibaka-type defender that can protect the rim defensively and spread the floor offensively, which is always very in demand. However, I think he’ll likely be similar to Willy Hernangomez, with a lot of potential but struggles guarding the pick and roll.

Think he’s a decent caliber NBA player. Crazy accurate shooter with great in between game between his floater and fadeaway. Managed to improve his efficiency with a higher usage percentage. Has a higher TS% than James Harden(this season). Decent passer who can move the ball when he avoids tunnel vision. Really good on the offensive end of the court, in transition or otherwise. However, defensively is where he’ll just get crushed. Only 6’5 with a wingspan shorter than his height, will have to guard shooting guards full time. Can’t really afford to switch off picks. His only hope to make it in the league long term is to become such a good shooter and offensive player he makes up for his defensive lapses. He needs to become sort of a secondary initiator with the ball, and be able to either use a PnR or create for others to really be effective. I don’t know if he can create against NBA guys. If I had to make a comparison, I like Alex Abrines.

6’3 200 pound combo guard who can play the 1 & the 2. Has a lot of offensive versatility with his skillset, as a bouncy athlete who can shoot. 39% from 3 and 75% from the line, but I expect him to be a good shooter in the pros over time considering his shot improved over time, and he was hitting some big shots in clutch situations. He has a 42 inch vertical, which shows his crazy athleticism. He can finish around the basket in part because of that vertical, and has just enough handling to get there. His athleticism and competitiveness lends the ability to defend guards well enough when he’s dialed in, but he isn’t exceptionally quick, long, or big enough to become a lock-down defender. The only problem with Frank is his position size. He is a natural 2 with the size of a 1. He has next to no creation skills in the pick and roll and needs a Ben Simmons or Giannis as a primary initiator in the half court to get the most value out of him. I am naturally a fan of athletic guys who can score at all three levels because usually you can turn them into at least net neutral guys on defense, and Frank Jackson is no exception. If he can improve his handle he reminds me of Jerryd Bayless.

Ultra-competitive 6’5 wing with 6’10 wingspan. Big-time college player who played every game like it was his last. Bulldog defensively who loved shutting down the opposing team’s best player, like he did to Luke Kennard in the tourney. Averaged 5.2 stocks(!!!!!!!!!!!) per 100 possessions, which shows how incredible he was defending both on and off the ball. Turned into a great scorer his senior year who scored 21 points per game on 59% True Shooting Percentage. His senior year, raised his averages to 39% from 3 and 8% from the line, along with adding in 7 boards and 3 assists. He’s just a winner. His passing and finishing ability isn’t great, but he finds ways to be effective. Thornwell struggles to finish inside against length, which is all he’ll encounter in the NBA, although he was adept at getting to the line. During the Combine, he made a lot of dumb decisions where he forced the issue and tried to force feed other guys as compared to making the easy play, but I’d rather see that than someone gunning for their own stats. Also at the Combine, he didn’t shoot the ball very well, which is a true concern despite the numbers. Even with such negative offensive indicators, I still believe Thornwell’s defensive versatility, potential three point shooting, and winning pedigree are leading him to be underrated by most scouts. If the right team drafts him, the 22 year old can be effective from Day 1. What’s to stop him from being Thabo Sefolosha?




Tier 7 - relatively moderate chance @ role player impact


Just a rim runner big man. Doesn’t take a lot off the table. Already looks like an NBA player. Decent free throw shooter at 65% with an EXCEPTIONALLY high free throw rate (83%!). Knows his role, stayed out of foul trouble (2.5 per game). What scares me is his low rebound percentage (14%) and block percentage (4.7%). I don’t know how much of that is the system (to avoid ticky tack fouls) and how much of that is Adebayo not being physical/not having the BBIQ. Think he is a young JJ Hickson to a T.

6’7 with 6’10 wingspan, not great but won’t kill him in the league. Will be another 3 / 4 tweener in the league. Pretty old, already 22.5, which could be useful to a good team looking for a playoff-ready contributor, similar to Brogdon this year. Has the most NBA-ready body of anyone in this draft. Became a great shooter (42% from three, 79% from the line) and gets to the line a ton (FTr > 50%, shows his aggressiveness and willingness to attack the basket). Solid rebounder for his size, similar to OG Anunoby’s numbers which makes sense because both are small fours. Relatively high assist percentage for a big. However, his steal and block rates are very, VERY low which gives me pause. Might be a little slow to guard SFs and too short to guard PFs. I used to think he was like Jordan Bell, in that he can immediately play for a playoff team. Now, I wonder if he’ll be out of the league before he makes a huge impact. He’s just a bad defender and not as fluid an athlete as he’d need to be to make up for it. I can see a lot of poor man’s Tobias Harris.

Can’t understand why this kid is so low. A 6’5 3&D wing is projected to be undrafted when he shot 45% from 3 and averaged 2 stocks per game? It’s always necessary to have guys who are efficient from the field (as evidenced by Brown’s 58% TS%) and don’t take that many shots. He is skilled at hitting threes off the catch and shoot and can even be a tertiary creator by using a screen and pulling up for three, or moving the ball in the flow of an offense. Every team needs 3&D wings, especially in an era where I predict the traditional big man is dying, leaving one more spot on the floor to be used by a guard/wing. His deficiencies lie with shot creation, playmaking, and finishing, just like all other 3&D guys. I really don’t know why he's not a Jodie Meeks-esque player.

6’8 forward with a 7 foot wingspan boasting a 41 inch vertical. Long athlete who checks all the boxes you can ask for in a modern stretch forward. Shot 39% from 3 and 72% from the line while scoring 11 points per game for the Gators. Great, long, willing defender who averaged 3.6 stocks per 100 possessions. Athleticism grants him the ability to check guards for periods of time, which he did in some games. Steadily improved every year at Florida, culminating in a strong season for the 22 year old junior. Talking about negatives, Robinson has very few tricks in his bag offensively. He can shoot the three and can finish near the basket, but his real strengths show in transition offense and not the half court. Also, he has zero passing ability, which you can get away with as a forward with no creation ability. Defensively, he’s got great tools, but has shown a lack of awareness off ball which can allow his man to get easy buckets. I think those issues will be ironed out by a good team, as no NBA team would allow Robinson to play if he keeps making bone-headed lapses on defense. I like Robinson’s ceiling more than DJ Wilson because Robinson has much more defensive upside, even though he’s a full two inches shorter. I think he’ll start out in the G-League, but I have faith in a guy who could potentially end up being a net positive on both ends. Hopefully he can be a better Chris McCullough.

Iffy on his NBA potential. Understand his size, length, and wingspan (7’5) are unteachable. Good efficient college scorer as a true freshman playing against great competition. Good rebounder. Good shot blocker. But…. eh. Nothing really wows me about him. He’s a good rebounder… but not great. He’s a good shot blocker… but not great. He doesn’t really have a post game, but he has a decent midrange jump shot that he showed off when playing the 4 at Texas despite being a true 5. He’ll be solid in the NBA, but something about him seems off to me with him. He’s not quite athletic enough to stick with guards. He’s currently not big enough to stick with true back to the basket centers. I just think he caps off as a bench 5 who is decent but never great. Strikes me as Jeff Withey.

6’10 PF, good size. Decent mobility. Great offensive skillset. Shot greater than 46% from three on an attempt and a half per game. Small sample size but there’s no doubt he is a strong offensive player. Shot 64% from two on 9 attempts per game, so there’s a huge sample size for his offensive game being legitimate. Willing passer with a very good passing rate. Good rebounder, not great. Defensively, about what you’d expect. Had worse block and steal numbers than defensive stud and fellow UCLA big man Kevin Love. Now a lot of this can be due to scheme, tunnelling drivers into the paint to be met by Anigbogu, but he will be even more of a liability at the next level. I think the NBA is moving more towards consistent two-way players which I do not think includes Leaf. Not a great rebounder, only slightly better than Markkannen in TRB%, although once again that may be partially because of Anigbogu. Also, his free throw percentage is alarming (68%) considering how efficient he was from the field. That tells me that regression will be coming in the NBA to some degree (in looking at successful stretch 4 types in college, TJ Leaf had one of the lowest FT%, especially considering how absurd his 3PT% is. All in all, he’ll be a decent stretch 4 and offensive player at the next level without any positive defensive indicators. Very low on his chances. Jon Leuer game.

6’10 athletic power forward who can shoot the three at 37%. Boasts a 7’3 wingspan and a decent amount of bounce relative to his size. Shot 83% from the line this past season and 54% from the field, which shows his shooting is not flukey. Has enough wiggle to his game that shows he can attack the cup against bigger guys closing out on him. Not the best defender in space, but has shown some capability to check smaller guys for periods of time. Also, he started playing his best basketball in March when he averaged a 17/6. With that being said, there’s a lot about him that just should be better. He should be a much better shot blocker and weak-side help defender but it just seems like he doesn’t have the BBIQ to know when to rotate and help. He should be a much better rebounder with his length and athleticism but he just doesn’t play physical and bang bodies, evidenced by his abominable 11.6 TRB%. He should have sky high potential with his skillset but he’s a late bloomer who is already 21 and has poor awareness on the court. He should be a better athlete if he wants to play the 4 in the NBA. He needs to be Marvin Williams to stick around in the league. Actually, as of the day of the draft, Wilson has a very similar profile to Skal Labissiere. I don’t think he has the same talent, but in the same vein I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a star.

24 year old 6’2 shooting guard masquerading as a point. 6’9 wingspan is the beginning of an absolutely incredible set of defensive skills which should lend themselves to the ability to defend all sorts of on-guards at the next level. Elite level athleticism both laterally and vertically allow him to stay in front of even the quickest guards at the college level. Great anticipation and reaction time give him the capability to get tons of steals and blocks. He is smart both individually and in a team setting and has no problem selling his body for a call. Now, he has the “D” part of the 3&D guard, but the 3 is still a work in progress. Offensively, he ended up shooting 42% from 3 and 74% from the line, but I’m inclined to say that’s an outlier season, and he’s probably not as good as either number suggests. Also, for his size, he’s not a playmaker whatsoever, with zero creation ability for himself or others. Maybe he can attack a closeout once in a while, but if he doesn’t have a clear dunking lane he’s in trouble. He’s another player who needs another player to handle primary offensive creation while he spots up around him and then defends the other team’s best guard. With all that being said, I think guard defense is so much more important in a league with growing dependency on the 3, and that is why I think a good team picking late in the draft will be able to put Allen’s talents to good use, despite his age. Regardless, I think he’s better than Semaj Christon is now.




Tier 8 - relatively little chance @ NBA impact


I think I like him more than Evans or Mason. 6’2.5 natural playmaking point guard with lacking wingspan and vertical measurements. His skillset is simple: he makes the smart play every time down the floor. His BBIQ is through the roof. His AST/TO% is historically great, and I believe the best in college basketball for his career. Great pick and roll playmaker who scored a point per possession courtesy of Synergy, which put him in the 85th percentile. He is a gifted playmaker for others, and that type of skill will make him loved by his teammates and coaches. Underrated shooter, who ended up shooting 38% from three and 80% from the line his senior season. His shot may be inconsistent, but I believe he can work on that and he will improve. Now, his shortcomings are obvious. He isn’t a great athlete, which hurts him in a lot of ways. Defensively, imagining him defending Westbrook is giving me heart palpitations, but that can be said with a lot of guys. Offensively, he seldom ability to drive to the basket, and I’d expect even fewer drives against NBA athletes. Despite these weaknesses, his strengths so clearly extend to the next level. I think he can be a primary initiator for a good bench unit, as long as it also features a plus offensive scorer. I want him to be a better Raul Neto.

Up and down type of player. Played in a high octane offense that valued quantity over quality. Good passer but makes bad decisions. Real bulldog type of player, plays hard and badly wants to win. Gets to the rim a ton (5.5 unassisted shots at the rim per 40) which has to be in part due to their pace but is insane regardless. Isn’t as efficient as you’d like for someone without great physical tools or defensive upside besides a high steal rate. Only 6’0 175 (6’4 wingspan), smaller than all other top point guards in this class. Efficient enough from three, although on limited attempts. Needs to increase his efficiency if he wants to turn into a good NBA player. Reminds me a lot of Jerian Grant / Aaron Brooks, both of which are below average backup point guards for right now.

6’11 with a 7’3 wingspan. Highly skilled player who shot 53% from three(!!!) albeit on 15 shots in total. 67% from two with a solid post game. He is athletic enough to blow by ground-bound college centers and attack the paint, or he can shoot over smaller guys. Can run in transition very well for his size. Overall, his number one asset is total offensive versatility. However, he kind of sucks everywhere else. Decent defender positionally but should have dominated the Big East. Not a good rebounder for his size at 13.8% TRB. He may have shot well from three but he shot barely 52% from the line… he shot better from three point range than on free throws, a better indicator of future shooting. And his offense probably was due in part to having Maurice Watson feed him the ball, one of college’s best true point guards. Patton just sucks. He’s gonna get to the NBA and get annihilated by better athletes who can defend his offensive skillset and will bully him when he’s on defense. No shot he sticks in the league. Reminiscent of the late Fab Melo to me.

6’9 true 4 with good measurables. Great modern skillset. Great athlete who gets up quickly and moves well laterally. Good creator offensively, as he has an ability to get a decent look in isolation situations and can even set up teammates with his playmaking skills. He is an okay finisher around the basket, but needs to improve in that area. He showed more promise from deep as a 22 year old junior shooting 32%, but still needs to work to become a stretch 4 to unlock the most of his potential. He only shot 63% from the line, which does not bode well for his future, but at the Combine he looked like he was shooting flames from behind the arc. Defensively, he has the tools to become a good defender, but not the mental aptitude. Has the body to be able to guard smalls with his length and feet along with the muscle to defend down low, but he just looks lost out there constantly. Whether it be jumping at the wrong time or in the wrong direction, his instincts are just plain bad, and those are the things I don’t think are coachable. Kuzma is a great talent, and I love guys who make the smart play and move the ball, especially if he is showing off some range from deep. However, I just don’t know if it’ll all work out with him. He needs to turn into Boris Diaw to make an impact.

Mobile rim-running 6’10 19 year old big with a 7’5 wingspan. Phenomenal ORB% at 18.7. Solid athlete for his position who embraces his role as an energy guy and flourished because of it. Only averaged 14.6 minutes per game but his per 40 stats of 19.5 PPG and 14.5 RPG are incredible. Really think he has the ability to be an impactful defender with his size and athleticism, the type of big that can squash a pick and roll and then sprint back to shut off a drive to the lane. Still is very raw though, especially on the defensive end. Not a great shot blocker, which he should be a lot better at. Great athlete but lacking in lateral quickness to guard in space. No post game at all. Overall, a very raw prospect with a mixed bag of positive and negative indicators. Maxes out as an Amir Johnson-like contributor.

6’8.5 big man with an impressive 7’3 wingspan. Was incredibly efficient from the field, as he shot 54% from the field and 44% from 3 as his team’s number one option. Was almost completely unguardable with his frame and skillset. As Mark Titus noted during the season, he’s also got an incredible motor, as during the game he will never stop moving, and that’s what makes him such an incredible rebounder. I mean, he averaged 22 boards per 100 possessions, which is unbelievable. Has a full post game, including hooks and fadeaways over either shoulder. Great passer for his size, as he was willing to pass out of doubles and almost always seemed to make the smart play. As much as I’m rooting for him, I don’t think he can make it in the league. He’s way too slow laterally to ever have to check a guard. He won’t be able to show off his passing ability because no one’s gonna bother doubling him. He’ll be grilled in pick and rolls for the rest of his life. Offensively, his skillset is good, but I don’t think it’ll be good enough. The only way he can carve out a long career for him is if he knows his limitations, violently attacks the boards on every shot, eliminate mistakes, and plays 10 minutes per game for some bench unit. Basically, he needs to be Zach Randolph.

Already know his comp for his ceiling is Will Barton. Great size for a 2 at 6’7. A lot of skill, improving as a scorer from all over the floor. 75% free throw shooter (and improving) and up to 33% from three, which I expect to be around what he shoots as a rookie even with the deeper line. Very efficient from 2 point range at 51%. Has the ability to create for himself a little off the dribble, although he’s definitely not a combo. However, didn’t get to the line nearly as much as expected (went down 7% in his sophomore year), especially considering he’s an NBA caliber athlete. Defensively is a mixed bag, considering he has the tools but not much else. Seemed slow, with average steal percentages and horrid block percentages. Streaky with his shot, although that can improve. Not a passer, can’t create for others. Little in between game, needs to improve with his right. Overall, NBA athlete who needs to improve offensively and defensively.

23 year old 6 foot lead guard with scoring and playmaking instincts. Historically good college player who seemed to have a penchant for making the right play. Great shooter who shot 47% from 3 on 5 attempts per game(!!!). Great scorer who could also take his man off the dribble and hit the pull up or go all the way to the cup and get a bucket or free throws. Good passer who could make plays for others. Defensively was never great but always competed and tried his ass off to win. But all in all, his size is such a limiting factor. He was a phenomenal college player but just does not have the ability to compete against night in and night out against NBA caliber players. The slim margin of error he had in college is now that much slimmer, and I think he’ll be phased out unless he turns into a flawless PnR player who consistently makes the right read. I don’t think he can. If he can’t operate out of the pick and roll then he is a lead guard with only iso skills that probably won’t work against NBA athletes. Regardless, I’m rooting for him to be more than Shane Larkin.

6’9.5 true 4 with a 7 foot wingspan. Shot nearly 40% from 3 and 86% from the line along with 8.6 boards per game. Efficient scorer who scored more than a point per possession. Not a bad passer, but with next to no handle in his game he probably won’t have the chance to showcase that ability at the next level. Everything else kind of sucks about him. Highest body fat percentage at the Combine (and Caleb Swanigan, a guy nicknamed “Biggie” was also there). Not a good athlete who will get routinely beaten defensively and will lack the quickness to truly attack a closeout in the NBA. Had decent stock numbers in college but that’s always inflated due to the infamous Syracuse zone. Just strikes me as the type of guy who absolutely needs to be a stretch 4 to have any chance of sticking around. At least with TJ Leaf, he is a great passer and more efficient finisher inside. Lydon has a ways to go to be an NBA caliber player. He’d be lucky to be Cameron Bairstow. Plus he’s fat.

6’4 off guard with a paltry 6’5 wingspan and a decent 36 inch vertical. Strong end of the year + plus good Combine numbers contributed to a steady rise up draft boards. His real NBA value is with his shot. Hit 42% of his threes this year, and 75% of his free throws. Synergy says he scored 1.202 points on guarded catch and shoot jumpers (81st percentile), which shows he has no problem scoring with a hand in his face. 60% True Shooting Percentage is a very efficient way to score 15 a game. But, he has zero other positive indicators for his game. Can’t defend, can’t pass, struggles to finish inside. I mean, he has a singular path to being an NBA player and it’s just hope to come in Day 1 and set nets on fire or else he’s gonna be looking overseas. I have read that he has Greek citizenship, so a team can use him as a draft-and-stash option, which might be the reason a team in the second round takes a shot on him. Otherwise, he has to pray he can turn into a Wayne Ellington type of player, or he’ll be putting that Greek visa to good use.