NBA Draft 2018 Big Board

• Value ceiling > floor for lottery selections and end of draft/undrafted guys. Other than the two poles, I value consistent high floor guys who don’t require a ton of developmental resources (coaching focus/system, G-League time, etc.) to reach their peaks.
• Emphasis on wings > bigs > guards. You can find so many rotation caliber guards between the G-League and overseas, and also so many go undrafted. Bigs are similar, not quite the same level of production, but guys like Udoh/Birch went overseas, improved their games, and have made a moderate impact as bench bigs. I think wings in that sense are more rare, and therefore more valuable
• For the most part, I stick with consensus even when I don't agree with it. For example, I'm low comparatively on someone like Mitchell Robinson for multiple reasons, but considering he is a near lottery pick and was a top 10 recruit, he'll get more opportunites to succeed than someone like Mo Wagner. I have to take that into account. To expand, I like Trier more than Trent in a vacuum.
• In general I like two-way guys who can play in some different lineups and don’t project as liabilities. Basically guys who can play in crunch time and/or playoff games.
• I probably underrate age outside of the lottery but I think it overall isn't that important, unless distinguising an 18 year old freshman from a 22 year old senior or similar circumstances.
• I understand the tier format doesn't make sense because there is nearly zero chance so many guys make it long term as role players, but it makes sense to me how to envision player skills and archetypes.
• Also I know these comparisons suck and it’s bad to compare players and yadda yadda yadda but I think they’re fun so that’s all that matters.

It’s impossible to talk about Doncic without mentioning what he’s accomplished in Euroleague as a teenager. Helped Slovenia win their first gold in Eurobasket and was selected to the All-Tournament first team. Then, won Euroleague MVP and Final Four MVP as he led Real Madrid to a championship. He did all of this before his 20th birthday. He’s probably the best international player in the world and even a chance he’s the best European prospect ever. When you watch him play, it’s clear why. For one, his size is exceptional for a play initiator and creator. 6’8 with 8’9 standing reach. Mobility is underrated, more fluidity than raw athletic ability. Not overly quick or fast but underrated in those regards. More of a functional athlete, takes good angles, attacks around his defender. Great shooting stroke with ability to score from anywhere, off the dribble or off the catch. Can shoot with a hand in his face to the point where it seems like sometimes he actually waits for a defender to close out before shooting. The speed at which he gets into his pull-up especially behind picks is really impressive, one of my favorite parts of his game. His natural shooting ability is evident in his FT numbers, 82% in Euroleague and was hovering around 90% for most of the season. Even though the numbers leave a lot to be desired I’m sure his shooting will come around eventually because of smoothness on all types of attempts along with the average difficulty on his shots. Floaters are a strength as well. When driving if he can’t get all the way to the cup has sort of a nice fall-away floater. Really just takes what the defense gives him. Building off of that, when he knows he can’t finish at the basket he looks to pass and that usually works out pretty well. Next his passing/IQ might truly be the best in the class, better than someone like Trae just because isn’t as prone to turnovers, 2.10 AST/TO ratio. Great passer who makes the smart play along with having the ability and vision to consistently create for others. Keeps a tight handle with the capability to snake the P&R. Has a lot of potential with his handle, can become a weapon and give himself more separation to make tough shots. Faster in the open court than you’d think, really pushes the ball in front of him to make up for those athletic deficiencies. Easy to see how high is IQ is, always makes passes and reads defenses in the P&R. Like, the type of passer who stares down the roll man, sucks in the defender making the bump, and throws a full cross-court pass to his man in the corner for an open shot. Puts a lot of zip on his passes, delivers tough passes through traffic with pinpoint accuracy and speed. Makes those plays look routine. Truly special feel as a teenager. Defense is almost entirely built around intellect, so despite average athletic profile he’s still pretty good overall. He’ll never be a great man-to-man guy but his combination of size, instincts, and effort will surely be a positive. Similar to Lonzo without as much burst. Defensive effort has improved in recent weeks around mid-April, when competition level ramped up so did he. Rotations are crisp, can make some impressive plays that you wouldn’t expect. Makes some blocks at the rim on bigs, gets some steals off passes, covers two guys, etc. That basketball feel is just evident. Really good at recovering to shooters while getting his hands on steals, great hands to pick pocket. This offseason is the first opportunity to improve his skills and body in a long time. Love for the game and desire to win readily apparent.

So much to like about JJJ’s full profile. First, he’s one of the youngest players in this class as he’s not even 19 yet. Has almost a full year and a half on Mohamed Bamba. Showed a ton of improvement from his high school days on the minutiae of the sport. Next, 6’10 with a 7’4 wingspan, enveloping length. Deters some guys through size alone. Finally, significant athletic ability. Not off-the-charts like Bagley, but impressive nonetheless. Plays like a bigger wing, moves his body around well with strong legs, along with vertical pop. Basically, checks all the boxes of the unteachable parts of the game. I also want to mention the ease of his game, not clumsy or awkward moving in tight spaces. The real appealing skill in JJJ’s game is his shooting upside. He has the potential to be a real knockdown shooter from distance. 79.5% from the line along with 44% from three. Despite his questionable shooting fundamentals, he is an extremely accurate shooter. Numbers and form can be extrapolated to the longer arc very easily, shot 45% from longer line on 58 attempts. Has shown good touch with his left hand, probably off-putting for a defensive player to be cognizant of consistently. A little post-up juice, tries to get to his left a lot. Not a great or willing passer but can make some impressive passes on occasion. Handle is pretty good, can function in legitimate in-game settings. I like to imagine his game expanding to attacking closeouts, putting the ball on deck, hitting shooters. Has the highest FTr among bigs in this class. Has shown flashes of that but seemed to be more restricted in college, tried to rescreen often instead of attacking rim. Solid screen setter, looks to make contact. Ease of movement is real, like I said is really like a bigger wing with better defensive instincts. Speaking of those defensive instincts, he can be so dominant. Rare wing with combination of perimeter D and rim protection, and he’s not even 19 yet. Stays in good stance against smalls, leverages their initial burst with good angles, uses length to alter shots. Great closing speed to get blocks, along with truly fantastic timing and rotational awareness. Really was in tune with game speed. Highest BLK% in my database at 14.3%. Has a real gift as a rim protector. Pretty quick hands to get steals as well when guys are posting up or just playing passing lanes. 2nd in the country in DBPM. Grades well according to TheStepien’s Player Distribution tool.

If you factor in his entire body of work there’s a chance Trae Young might have had the greatest season in NCAAB history. As a true freshman, Trae led the country in points and assists per game (27.4 and 8.7 respectively) and also brought an overrated Oklahoma team to the NCAA tournament. He was also represented well by advanced stats, finishing number 1 in the country in OBPM and USG% along with top 10 in OWS and general BPM. Phenomenal offensive ability come from his skills shooting off the dribble, seeing the court, and manipulating the defense. First is shooting - don’t let his 36% from 3 fool you. There’s an easy argument to be made that Young was the best shooter in the country when you factor in degree of difficulty. First, 36% from the longer NBA line on 236 attempts. He will have zero problems adjusting to the deeper line. Next, 86% from the line, 40% on midrange jumpers with only 2% being assisted. Accuracy is not the problem, nor is pulling up off the dribble. Generational prospect in both of those regards. Third, incredible at shooting regardless of his feet, the best I’ve ever seen at the college level. So like, jab steps, can have his left foot in front, doesn’t matter. Remarkable balance. His mechanics allow him to get off a shot as quick as possible no matter his body alignment or defense. Completely unfazed by contests because he knows he can make any shot possible. Routinely drains 40 footers like he’s Steph, and he’s not even 20 yet. Best shooter in college basketball since Jimmer and is probably better than that. Shot chart is NBA-like, very little mid-range. Scoring extends farther than just bombing 3s. Super efficient floater, makes up for his poor finishing. Gotta be one of the most efficient floaters in the country, at least early in the season. Knows how to leverage defenders playing up on him to get to the basket. including using head fakes and hesitation moves to manipulate defenses. Quickness is displayed here, attacks closeouts well even with entire defenses focused on him. Able to finish reverse layups really well in traffic as well. However, scoring is only half his offensive skillset. Young is fully able to manipulate a defense and get whatever shot he wants whenever he wants it. Best transition look-ahead/outlet passer I’ve ever seen, was really good at this against the WVU press. Always keeps his head up, whether it be in transition, after a made basket or after a defensive rebound. He made cross-court passes to shooters look easy, along with throwing lobs in traffic to a big that always seemed to work. Such a high basketball IQ on PnRs, he just knows exactly how the defense is going to react. It’s hard for me to describe how impressive his basketball IQ is, clearly the best in this class. Another underrated aspect of his game is his ability to draw fouls at such a young age. Has the elite guard head throw-back when being lightly touched on the perimeter that occasionally draws fouls. Gets a lot of college superstar calls. Defensively is fine in college just because he knows what to do, ends up with a lot of steals. Contests from behind, no one really expects it so it alters shots a good amount of time. Can’t fully expend himself on that end of the floor because OK legit can’t play without him. When he’s given consistent defensive effort (final 28 minutes in the first game vs. TTU) he’s above average against college players.

Ayton was truly a dominant college player at Arizona. At 7’0 with a 7’5 wingspan and a body built like a Greek god, his physically imposing size made him stand out among his peers. Next, his mobility for his size is impressive, he runs like a gazelle. Moves his feet well, has burst both ways. No reason for someone his size to also be the best athlete on the floor. His full physical profile is reminiscent of other top center prospects. He even has the potential to grow out even more because his shoulders are really wide, I’m confident his core strength can continue to improve. He just looks the part of a dominant NBA big man. Another thing, insane coordination. Really well-balanced, isn’t clumsy, good hands, is really functional in all of the little things that separate the best from the rest. Seriously, dude has some ballerina footwork for a guy his size, it’s absurd. This is all evident in the post, never really loses the ball or gets out of control, if anything just eager to put up bad shots. Can hit a baby hook, sky hook, fadeaway, up-and-under, you name it Ayton can do it. Has the potential to be a walking mismatch, even for opposing centers. Also I hate the comparison to Embiid because Embiid is a lot more clumsy in a lot of areas, stumbles over his feet, loses his balance, etc., whereas Ayton is very much polished. He’s 82% at the rim, second in the last 4 years only to Robert Williams. If you eliminate dunks, Ayton’s percentage at the rim is 7% higher than Williams’ on 2 more attempts per 40 minutes. The dude’s efficiency is next level. On top of that, Ayton has shown legitimate flashes of floor spacing ability. 44% of his shots were from midrange where he shot 43%, both numbers above average among bigs. His mechanics are unusual but he gets it off quickly and confidently. Good repeatable FT shooter, 73%. 34% from 3 on one attempt per game isn’t anything to scoff at, I’m confident he can at least be 35% from the NBA line on ~3 attempts per game. That adds a whole new dimension to an offense. Not afraid to attack against a zone, or in traffic, keeps a tight handle and usually gets the shot he wants. 13% ORB%, another area where he adds value. Good passer, can pass out of doubles, definitely a second instinct but seems to be aware of the right pass/play. Defense is definitely more of a weakness than a strength right now but he at least has the potential to be extremely effective. Has shown flashes of game-changing defensive ability. I’m talking runs a guy off the perimeter, P&R contain, then a block at the rim. Those flashes are super rare, but he’s got that sort of talent. His feet really allow him to move well on the perimeter for stretches, not his game but he’s better than Bamba in that regard. Size and athletic ability grants him rim protection. His defensive awareness is generally poor all around but I will say that it improved as the year went on, had some really good stretches in the PAC-12 tourney. Plus, he played out of position all year as mostly a 4 for some reason and that probably highlighted a lot of his deficiencies. He will clearly be a 5 in the NBA.

6’11 shooter and scorer with a frame that looks like it can be built upon to add muscle. Supposedly played at ~211 at Missouri, can probably get up to around 225 without sacrificing any of his athleticism. Surprising vertical athlete, can throw down some impressive dunks even in traffic. Scoring prowess at his size is what makes Porter such an intriguing prospect. First, has high release point and fluid lower body movement and footwork. He excels at difficult shots, natural shooting over contests, almost as if defense doesn’t matter. Size gives him leeway with moves and ability to do things not many others can. He does a phenomenal job using dribble moves to get just enough space to rise up and pull the trigger. Had one of the quickest triggers at the HS level, was consistently able to create makeable shots (for him) regardless of defense. Go-to shot in HS was a pull-up three, another shot that shows his confidence in his abilities. Really comfortable getting his looks off movement, flying around screens, coming up from pin-downs, etc. Does a decent job staying on balance when doing so but it’s not necessary for the shot to go in. Excels at sort of in between shots, when he can’t get through the basket he can score over, above, around, under guys, just a comfortable and freakish scorer. Good handle, not great especially at Missouri, but he uses a variety of moves to create space. Very in control when driving, leverages long strides and length to finish through contact and in traffic. Usually gets him where he needs to be, allows him to score on top of bigs with floaters or even rise up and dunk. Passing and IQ on the offensive end has been hotly debated, especially when looking at his Missouri tape. However, I think Porter will not be a complete black hole. Averaged 2.1 APG in 2 EYBL seasons, which isn’t great but probably just goes to show two small sample sizes. Will be able to utilize better teammates to score at the next level. Defense is also a hot topic, but Porter does provide some rim protection ability, over a block per game in the EYBL. Rotates over often hunting for those emphatic volleyball spikes but also does a decent job contesting at the rim. Just gets his hands up and contests, his energy in that regard is consistently a deterrent. Best part of his defensive upside, and also why I think his best NBA position is at the 5. He also averaged over a steal per game in the EYBL due to his quick hands and size. Usually it’s because he reaches instead of moving his feet but he gets pieces of ball often enough for it to be worthwhile. Also, was the star of his AAU team over Trae Young so that has to count for something.

In case you live under a rock, Bamba has dominated the pre-draft process. First, he measured with the longest wingspan ever at the NBA Combine at 7’10. His length hasn’t been seen since Manute Bol or Shawn Bradley. Next, pre-draft workout videos of him have been released, showing off a new jump shot with the help of renowned shot doctor Drew Hanlen. If that wasn’t enough, Bamba’s intellect and mental approach were on display in multiple interviews and he really seemed to grasp high-level basketball theory. Changing shot geometry, redefining positional ideals, etc. It’s easy to imagine him blossoming into a high IQ offensive and defensive player. In terms of on-the-court ability, Bamba isn’t lacking there either. His size gives him a nice foundation around the basket both as a scorer and rebounder. 78.8% at the rim is really impressive, just too big and long to be covered by college guys. Length explosion vertically to dunk in traffic is damn near impossible to stop. Offensive rebounding is about effort level with him, when he wants to grab rebounds he grabs rebounds. Good coordination, apparent when grabbing rebounds, blocking shots, and catching lobs. Speaking of catching lobs, his catch radius is absurd, especially when taking into account how much ground he covers with his strides. He’s not as athletic as Giannis, but same sort of length. I mentioned Drew Hanlen working with Bamba to improve his shooting, and that’s huge. If he can become even an average three point shooter at his size it would be such a weapon, has already shown a lot of confidence from 3. However, I would say 80% of his projected NBA value comes from his defense. There’s no reason why a dude with a 7’10 wingspan should be able to move and cover as much ground as Bamba does. His production on that end of the floor might be even more impressive than his measurements. His shot blocking ability is game changing. Besides averaging 3.7 blocks per game, his mobility combined with his length gives him avenues to be best rim protector in the NBA. Rotates over to protect the rim really quickly, and just his presence affects the offense. Getting better at going straight up on contests. >27% DREB% and 13% BLK% which is historic. Averages almost a steal per game solely due to his length and long hands. Gets a lot more steals defensively than you’d think with his long hands. Wins a lot of 50/50 balls he shouldn’t, that’s if he ever does battle for 50/50 balls.

6’11 is great size for a player who probably will play with another big. You can’t talk about Bagley without mentioning his jaw-dropping athleticism. Ayton’s a good athlete too but Bagley blows him out of the water. His mobility at his size is almost unthinkable, he’s probably one of the 10 best athletes in this entire class. Closes gaps in the blink of an eye, super good coordination, big leaper, slides his feet well, has the whole athletic package. It’s basically like stretching an athlete like Kris Dunn into a 6’11 frame. One of Bagley’s strongest athletic abilities is his rejumpability (it’s a word trust me). The dude wastes no time getting back up in the air after landing, it’s almost as if as soon as his toes hit the ground he flies back up. I’ve never seen anything like it. Seriously, almost all of his value comes from the application of his athletic ability onto functional aspects of basketball. If he can learn to shoot, he can attack closeouts and get to the rim. If he improves his handle, he has a ton potential as a driver/isolation player. When has momentum to the paint, can finish over, around, or through the defense. Most of the applications revolve around defense, which I’ll go into more later. On a preliminary level, his quickness makes it easy for him to rotate, close out, contest at the rim, etc. That isn’t to say Bagley doesn’t have any skills right now. You don’t win ACC POY as a freshman without having a lot of natural talent. Unbelievable scoring around the basket, 77% at the rim with real natural touch. Hit so many tough, contested shots off drives and offensive rebounds. Speaking of, best real tangible skill is his rebounding. 11 per game and his leaping ability + consistent effort helps him out a ton. Really good at high-pointing the ball. Can coast on that natural ability currently, when he gets better at boxing out he can be a top 5 rebounder in the NBA. Effortless grabbing rebounds in traffic. Shooting profile is honestly really suspect but fluidity is a huge asset. Looks so comfortable pulling up off a dribble going left, and considering his lateral agility, that pull-up is probably more important than a spot shot. Defense is clearly a weak spot but once again athleticism gives him insane upside. I’ve heard Bagley referred to as a “clean slate defender” meaning that some teams think they can fix his defense predicated on his athleticism and willingness to learn. If I knew a team could re-teach him basic concepts and improve his defensive instincts I’d have Bagley #1 overall.

You can’t talk about Bridges without talking about his physical profile. He has a clear-cut NBA-ready frame with a strong lower body. His vertical athleticism is fantastic, he has crazy hops to sky for lobs and rebounds, and can go up off one foot or two. Has shown an unbelievable amount of progress as a shooter considering he had the reputation of a liability in HS (26% from 3 in EYBL). In college he improved from 68.5% from the line as a freshman to 85.4%, and he was hovering around 90% for most of the year. His 3 point shooting numbers dipped slightly but he played with two bigs more often than last year. His mechanics seem foundational, just a simple and consistent movement. Can shoot off of movement, always stays balanced, and no problems about shooting in iso situations. Loves to hesitate with the ball in his hands and then pull when his defender least expects it. Attacks closeouts with abandon, usually settles for a pull-up jumper but can get all the way to the basket if he wants. More of a finesse finisher surprisingly, never tries to posterize guys. Surprisingly shifty handle, can create with it, although not his go-to tool. Shown some flashes of playmaking ability, more recognition of floor openings and mismatches than defense manipulation however. Smart and decisive ball mover, some P&R upside. Still within the realm of outcomes at the NBA level for him to be able to create for others. Strong rebounder for his size, even when you consider the fact that he almost exclusively played with two other bigs, helped a ton by his vertical. Defense is fine, not great but not bad. Excels at using his frame to absorb contact and stick with his man. Can stick with most guys long enough to bring in help if he needs, plus is switchable because of that frame. He was so effective for the MSU defense because he could cover 1 through 5 if need be. Can function as a help-side rim protector, has a few impressive reads rotating over for some blocks. Finally, the dude is clutch. Besides just the Purdue shot, I’ve seen him play at Rutgers and the dude sucked the life out of the crowd with every shot. He lives for big moments.

6’10 with a 7’4.5 wingspan, along with a sturdy 250 lbs. frame, low center of gravity. For his size, his athletic ability is pretty impressive. Vertical ability is apparent, doesn’t have po-go sticks for legs but he can make almost all the plays he needs. Nimble feet, I’ll get to his infamous perimeter defense but he can stick with bigs in the post or on drives. Still makes some athletic plays you don’t see coming. Might have the best shooting profile for any big other than JJJ in this draft , and there’s an argument his superior mechanics make him number one. Strong and consistent base for a step shot. 73.8% from the line isn’t ideal but 41.8% from distance is a very encouraging sign. Shot selection is ideal, never takes shots he’s not capable of hitting. Power finisher who has added finesse to his game. Capable of hitting hook shots off mismatches, getting into his defender and creating space. Same with shooting, takes the shots he can make and never plays out of control. I think that is a testament to his basketball IQ and feel, which is his clear best attribute. Just such a cerebral player, one of the few who knows how to seal, duck in, position and time his screens, etc. Maximizes physical tools with IQ. Really good at finding the open spots on the floor and moving to them. Makes the high-low entry, finds the open man off of doubles. Highest AST/TO and AST% ratio of any top big at ~1 and ~13% respectively. As a 19 year-old freshman, the way he already thinks the game is impactful. Definitely the type of player who contributes to winning in ways you’d only realize if you watched. Had the second best net rating on Duke to Grayson, which sounds unimpressive until you remember Duke had two good backup centers and zero backup wings/guards. I’m saying in a really long-winded way that his floor is really high because of his natural instincts. Above average rebounder, even when you consider playing with Bagley who averaged over 11 per game. His defense is a positive too for much of the same reasons I don’t think I have to go into. It probably looks worse than it should because he has to cover for all of Duke’s horrible defenders’ missteps. Offers a lot of strong rim protection instincts which he showed often, and does it without fouling. Positionality usually a plus. His post defense is great for reasons beside his huge frame, he is great at keeping his arms straight up to disrupt. Grades really well according to TheStepien’s Player Distribution tool.

6’9 wingspan. I think he’s the best athlete in the draft, his vertical athleticism is absolutely bonkers and he’s really damn quick on the perimeter as well. He skies for rebounds and dunks to the point where it doesn’t even look human. Shooting is his swing skill, but still shot 45% from 3. Mechanics look solid, doesn’t shoot it too much for me to really get a firm grasp of where he needs to improve. Has a lot of lateral explosion, can blow by people off the dribble, although that’s rare. Always looking for something to do on offense, never stands around. Puts a ton of pressure on the defense on the defense that way. Hustles his ass off every play, he sets screens, cuts, rim runs, attacks the glass, etc. Regarding screens, in offensive breakdowns he loves to sets down and flare screens and get guys open, I mean what other freshman does that? He actually has unbelievable feel for the game, it’s not hyperbole. He reads shot attempts for offensive rebounds, looks for cutters when he has the ball. His defense is really damn good and consistent. He’s versatile enough to guard everyone 1-5, spent time on everyone from Trae Young to Azubuike. Loves to defend bigs, is very active and physical with them. Can stick with guards in PoA situations, ideal mirroring technique, and if he gets blown by can still make up for it with a trail block. So active defensively as well off-ball, seems like with time can become the ideal team defender. He even adds a lot of rim protection, 27 at rim blocks this season, insane for a 6’5 wing. It’s so rare to see a guy who is a crazy athlete, has the IQ+feel, and is active and always uses these gifts. He is a rare breed defensively. Advanced stats love him too, BPM of 11.8 (3rd among wings in this class) and high win shares. Grades well according to The Stepien’s Player Distribution tool with a high floor. Mike Gribanov has pointed out here that guys who are high-level athletes are prone to unexpected development (Westbrook, Oladipo) and that's the path you have to hope for if you have Smith as a top 10 pick.

Mikal is the prototypical wing in this draft. Standing at 6’7 with a 7’2 wingspan, has the requisite length for the position along with good switchability. Athletic ability is also a positive, doesn’t always wow you but just enough to make winning plays. Has some nice dunks over guys on occasion. Quickness and speed are there, more perceptible on the defensive end. Scoring instincts have much improved, especially from someone who came to Villanova as a defense-first guy. His mechanics are solid, he uses every bit of his length on his release, sort of Durant-esque. Almost unblockable. Statistics back up eye test and reputation, 43.5% from 3, 85% from the line. I do want to mention his off the dribble shooting because to some it’s his biggest weakness but I have not noticed that at all. I’ve watched maybe 20 Villanova games and Bridges’ confidence stood out. The dude is completely unfazed by contests, and although the efficiency wasn’t on par with his normal catch and shoot numbers he was still solid. 75% of his midrange jumpers were unassisted and he made over 41% of them, both of those numbers are better than average. Has improved coming off movement and action, his high release adds a ton of flexibility to his shot. In fact, although he’s improved a lot off the dribble, I think some of his creation ability comes from that, flying around screens like Kyle Korver (not that good, but you get that picture). Maybe could cap out as a secondary option in isolation/end-of-clock situations. Finishing at the basket through contact isn’t spectacular but he’s well-represented statistically, 68% at the rim. Good cutter and relocator, knows how to attack a bad defense. Great at running in for offensive rebounds and hustling, gets a few tip slams. Pretty solid post game surprisingly, he wants to post up more than he should but it will definitely be utilized at the next level. Passing is fine, Villanova drilled in him to make the right play. More of a shooter/scorer at this stage but could be a tertiary P&R guy, the Synergy numbers are good there. Just to show his overall offensive value according to Synergy, Bridges was the 90th percentile or better in: Overall half-court offense (PPP), Spot-ups, Post-ups, P&R ball handler, Cuts, Off screens (as of 2/17). However, Bridges is just as good defensively as he is offensively. One of the premier perimeter defenders in the country, he covered everyone from Shamorie Ponds to Angel Delgado for stretches. Technique/discipline are two words that always come up when watching him defend. He’s great at mirroring, does a good job keeping his torso on his man. Averages over a block and steal per game, can strip a layup attempt before it happens or pin it off glass. Length is really suffocating, often his arms outstretched can deter an offense. Never really gives up on a play or a game, just keeps plugging away. Quick in reactions, not just a lateral mover but reacts well to head fakes (stays down) and blow-bys (moves well). Rotations are correct, creates some defensive events with anticipation and size. #2 in NBAMath’s Total Points Added metric .

6’7 wingspan. Does a lot of things very well, and has a lot of the mental and physical tools teams crave in a prospect. Mentally, the dude is a crazy competitor. Contagious work ethic, they had to force Sexton out of the gym at times, which I think is one of the single most important qualities in a prospect. He’s cold-blooded, wants the ball in his hands at all times and especially in clutch situations. Plus, Avery Johnson calls a ton of plays, Good quick twitch athlete with lateral explosion and high end speed. Better vertical explosion than given credit for, won the McDonald’s Slam Dunk Contest. Offensively has a fantastic starting skillset. Good equity as a shot creator including surprisingly deep range on his jumper, can attack the rim, create for others, everything you could ask for. Supreme confidence in his jumper and can use his handle and quickness to get to his shots from anywhere in the floor, makes some mistakes with the ball but always looks to be confident. Has a pretty solid floater which he’ll need to continue to improve at. Jumper is mechanically sound, his transition from dribble to pull-up is super efficient and will continue to get stronger. Synergy rates him very highly in P&R ball handling/passing (top 10 percentile) which is his top skill in college. Has a nice stop and start ability to go along with that. Footwork on drives is great, is shifty and is good at snaking around guys on occasion or barrelling through them. Crazy high FTr, loves to attack bigger guys and draw fouls. Defense is solid, he plays engaged, quick feet, stays active, doesn’t make mistakes usually.

Upperclassmen and unequivocal leader for Villanova, won 2 championships in 3 seasons. Unbelievable offensive talent, historically efficient at everything he was asked to do. His scoring and self-creation numbers are insane. He has the single highest offensive self-creation of anyone in my database, the first dude to hit 100. Splits at 52.1/40.8/80.2, 63.5% TS, 51.5% on 2 pt jumpers with only 3.4% of those being assisted, above 70% at the rim with only 20% of that being assisted... dude's next level. He is up there with Buddy and Jimmer as best offensive talents the last few years in college basketball. His post-up game is legit, can punish smaller guards on him and is actually efficient with his little step-back he has. Has a lefty floater he uses a ton if he can’t get all the way to the rim. He also exhibits total control when handling the ball, always plays two steps ahead (ie drive then headfake opens up interior pass). He’s gifted in the P&R, creates for himself and others, and rarely makes mistakes. Just always in control. I think he is the best offensive player in this draft, better than Ayton and Doncic. Defensively is mostly a negative but to me half of defense at the NBA level is effort, and he gives it. He hustles more than most, even with his offensive burden. His IQ manifests itself in this regard too, doesn’t really make mistakes. I think his strength is key on this end and even makes up for his lack of athleticism & length in some regards. Also, keep in mind NBA executives want guys from Nova for a reason. They’re hard-working, fundamentally sound, and tough as hell. Brunson is no exception.

6-foot-7 senior wing with a 7-foot-1 wingspan. Good athlete with a great first step. Solid scoring profile @ 20ppg, much improved shot-taker and maker. Had such an insane creation burden for Boise State, they relied on him for legitimately everything within their offense, USG% at 33.2. Upped his 3pt% to 36 and FT% to 72.5. It’s evident how much work has went into his mechanics, I really like how his body flows when shooting, one fluid motion. Gotten a lot better at catching off the hop in rhythm. Pretty good finisher around the basket - 72% at the rim on only 27.2% assisted, can finish with either hand. High FTr, averaged over 7 FTA/game. Nice footwork, loves to step through whether after a jump stop or sort of a euro. Long strider, really attacks the rim in the half court and puts emphasis on the defense, especially with the ball in transition. Draws a ton of his fouls that way. Relishes in attacking closeouts, very good at catching while moving to give himself forward momentum to attack. This package of attacking the basket is a real skill he has. Willing passer, every game I’ve seen of him he gets his teammates open looks and they just don’t convert, really good at hitting shooters on kickouts. Defensively is a mixed bag. Smart rotations, I’ve seen a few solid stunts and recovers, seeing one pass ahead. Rates well above average at Jackson Hoy’s defense rating in his draft database. Very strong work ethic as discussed in SI.

7’0 wingspan is an insane number for a wing. In very good shape, barely over 5% body fat and ripped. Crazy athlete both vertically and laterally , most impressive Combine scores of any prospect this year, who applies this athleticism every play. Surprising shooting profile - 38% from 3 and over 80% from the line. Relied upon to create offense for Georgia Tech, high USG% at 27.3, which explains some of his inefficiencies. Strong scoring instinct always in attack mode, especially in transition. Competitor with high FTr, consistently puts pressure on the defense. Lives on attacking closeouts. Has some equity as self-creator due to aggressive nature. Smooth motion into shooting off the dribble, very comfortable with getting to that shot in the mid-range in a variety of ways: spins, fades, pull-ups, etc. Improved as lefty driver and finisher. High bball IQ in terms of keeping/moving the ball, a good extra pass/ball mover guy. On defense, could in time turn into lockdown defender of guards/ small wings. Really good at using his chest to stay with the offensive player and reaching with his long arms at the ball. Really light feet to stay attached on drives. Best wing defender I’ve seen at getting through screens, he hustles if he gets hit hard to recover, but otherwise always jumps in front of the screen and rides his man. Covers a lot of ground on his closeouts, really fights to get a piece of jump shots or change the shooter’s shot. Has some superstar upside with athleticism, coordination, and attack-oriented mindset.

Evans is a very consistent and even-keeled player. To start with his shot, he’s really become a consistently great shooter. 37% from 3 on 4.5 attempts per game, easily his best offensive skill. Good mechanics, no extraneous movement, well-balanced. Loves getting to his pull-up, one of the few guys who is just as good catch and shoot as he is off the dribble. High proclivity to shoot off movement, whether it be screen action or relocation. Has been playing a little point guard at 6’6 as evidenced by averaging 3.1 assists per game, most on the team. Doesn’t make too many mistakes, just makes the pass the defense gives him, 1.79 AST/TO ratio. Has some P&R upside too surprisingly, top 5 percentile as P&R ball handler. Averaged 2.3 stocks per game, makes an impact on the game on both ends. Very solid high IQ team defender, smart understanding of positionality and rotations and overall defensive concepts. Seems like he always knows whether to switch/hedge. Crisp rotations, 23 at rim blocks are a good baseline to show that he gets to the spots before the offense can. Strong upper body he uses to keep with bigger guys and also finish through contact. Has one of the highest 3nD and Defense ratings in Jackson Hoy’s database. Highest plus-minus on the team, higher than advanced stat darling Gary Clark.

Melton offers sub-elite physical tools and maximizes every bit of them. Intersection of lateral and vertical athleticism, along with solid hand-eye coordination, will put him in upper echelon of NBA athletes on Day 1. Melton's shooting and scoring aren't exactly positives but his profile is not all bad. Mechanics while not perfect are workable, good base/footwork and can get to it quickly. Plus, working with Drew Hanlen as his trainer will probably improve his shooting, both aesthetically and functionally. 75% of his midrange jumpers were unassisted, which shows some confidence in his shot, along with a little glimpse of comfortability in his handle. He can wow you at times with it when used effectively, especially his hesitation move. It’s the tool he uses on offense to create separation, get open looks, or even manipulate the defense to hit a big man or a shooter. Touching on that, Melton's best skill on the offensive end is his passing. Really good playmaker for others, clearly his first instinct. Plays one step ahead of the defense, pretty high-level passer too. Makes some difficult pocket passes in a PnR, affinity for hitting the roll man. Looks some cutters open. With the ball in transition always looks to make the outlet pass and push the ball, a skill I love to see because it’s even better in the NBA. Despite relatively high turnover numbers, 1.95 AST/TO ratio shows how his passing and creation abilities still positively affect an offense. Not the type of passer that requires the ball to be effective, can play in an off-ball role despite his bad shooting. Smart instincts, moves the ball, attacks closeouts. One of the few guys I’ve seen who utilizes pass fakes, and they’re actually pretty useful. Finishes at rim well due to length, really good at extending his arms through traffic. Does a good job of contorting his body to finish acrobatic layups around defenders, especially reverses. FTr of 47%, good at hunting contact on bigs. Just has that innate concept of how to play basketball and where to be. That extends to his defense. Defensive instincts are next level, makes few mistakes. I keep hearing “anticipation” with him on the defensive end, and it shows in his play. Probably the best PG defender in this class, fantastic mirrorer. Walls up well and contains. Defensive roations are usually sound, gambles for steals and blocks often but usually it works out. Stupid high STL and BLK percentages, 4 and 3.9 respectively, really rises up for blocks at the rim. Also best transition defender of any guy in this class easily, he can singlehandedly stop a 3-on-1 on some occasions. Really good at challenging layups without fouling. When checked in and flying around, really impacts a team.

6’7 is good size for a wing, with long arms. Tested surprisingly well at the Combine, showed off his vertical explosion with above average vertical numbers and displayed quickness in bursts. Huerter’s NBA-level skillset starts with his shooting ability. He shot 41.7% from 3, smooth stroke and gets into his release quickly. Has shown marked improvement as a scorer from freshman to sophomore year, improved his efficiency everywhere. Shot 52% from midrange this year, the highest of any prospect in the last 4 years in my database. He is in the top quarter percentile in every spot on the floor comparative to other wings according to TheStepien’s shot chart. Huerter’s IQ is also evident when watching him play, he’s a smart ball mover who recognizes openings and knows where his teammates are. Reactionary passer, takes what the defense gives him, reads doubles and finds the open man. Projects to be a capable secondary playmaker who can attack closeouts and rotate the ball effectively. Rates in the 97th percentile as a P&R ball handler according to Synergy. High IQ extends to cutting and backdoor plays where he is >70% at the rim. Actually fights for offensive boards, takes his guy and hustles when his man doesn’t expect. In both of these types of plays, vertical pop is evident. Good one-on-one defense, keeps arms out wide and gets into the chest of his man. High IQ extends to team defense, brings smart help and rotates effectively. Doesn’t try to cheat screens, usually in the right place when guarding off-ball and navigating action. Underrated shot blocker with help defense but more common getting pieces of shots at the rim.

Good size for a SG, 6’4.5 with a 6’10 wingspan. Nearly 200 pounds with a developed frame for a freshman. Athletic profile is already above-average, has some jaw-dropping plays involving highlight-reel dunks, or even just impressive bursts of speed or quickness. Already will fit at the next level with size and athleticism. Best part of his game at this age is his shooting. Good shooter with strong foundational mechanics that are super consistent, shoots 34.6% from 3 and 73.8% from the line, but those numbers don’t tell the whole story. He has a super quick trigger with a high level of confidence, an aggressive nature, and deep range on his jumper. High likelihood this skill can be expanded further in terms of becoming the primary option shooting around picks. Proclivity to shoot off the bounce, 80% of his midrange jumpers were unassisted. Handle doesn’t hurt him but mostly his lateral agility is what enables this part of his game. Overall his self-creation talents give him a real chance to be a dominant scorer, I would guess his 90th percentile outcome is a Bradley Beal sort of shooter/scorer. Finishing is a mixed bag, his aggression and confidence manifests itself here where he isn’t afraid to dunk or attack the rim no matter who is in the paint. One of the few guys whose body control is apparent on drives. Has played some PG for Miami for stretches, can move the ball and help an offense. Some P&R prowess. Not someone to create for others but is aware of the smart ball rotation and relocation more often than not. Speaking of relocation, Walker does a good job of moving into his drivers’ lines of sights and getting off decent looks. Overall though I wouldn’t classify offensive IQ as a strong positive even considering his 1.65 AST/TO ratio, but has the makings of one. Has a lot of physical tools to theoretically be a good defender but is not like that currently. Possesses the physical and mental aptitude to lock in and deter an offensive player. Effort level is usually there. Doesn’t beat himself. His confidence is apparent, thinks he can defend anyone on the court. More of a man-to-man defender at this stage than a team defender but mostly knows what he’s doing, capable of making basic stunts, bumps, and gaps. One of the few guys who undoubtedly has that clutch gene (if you ignore the end of the Loyola game), who has an unrelenting belief in himself and wants that ball when it matters. That kind of stuff matters to me. Also, by all accounts, a great kid too.

6’6 with a 6'11.5 wingspan as primary creator, and able to guard smalls? Super rare physical profile. He really controls the game as a true freshman, Cal gave him an unusual amount of slack as the offensive fulcrum, Shai called a few plays in the flow of the offense. Very surprising shooting numbers - 82.2% from the line, 40.4% from 3, 37.9% on 2pt jumpers with an incredible creation burden. But most of his offensive value is from his creation abilities in the P&R, both for himself and others. Can make any play with the ball in his hands, kicks it to shooters, finishes at the basket, gets to his spots. Has a nice little hesitation change of pace to his game, pretty good at splitting the P&Rs, usually a rare skill for college freshmen. With that, probably the best guard in this class at jailing the P&R defender and patiently attacking, is really good at maneuvering in tight situations. Another thing, really good at using his pivot foot to jab step and create space when waiting for a pick. Has a really quick between the legs dribble he loves. Good aggressive nature attacking the basket and finishing through contact. Cole Zwicker uses the term “length explosion” which is how Shai is still a good finisher despite the athletic deficiencies, and I really like that term. Really high FTr, his constant driving game (and to a smaller degree lack of good first step) really lends itself to drawing fouls. On defense I think he’s fine, I haven’t seen him challenged too often. Usually moves his feet enough to rely on length to contest. Team defense is good, not great but good, doesn’t make too many mistakes. Clutch player.

Okobo has real potential as a primary offensive creator. 6’3 guard with a 6’8 wingspan and his arms look even longer than that. Not the strongest guy but has some underrated core strength and good balance. Okobo is a scorer first and foremost from mostly the PG position. Averaged almost 13 per game in the French A league on 39% from 3 and 82% from the line. Real ability to score in bunches, sort of a microwave scorer. Unbelievable off the dribble, really seems to be his primary method of scoring as opposed to off the catch. Can load up off a dribble from either hand. Very comfortable pulling up behind a screen or pulling up in the midrange off a closeout. His confidence in his shot is legit, truly believes he can score from anywhere and from what I can tell he’s right. His mechanics don’t seem to be ideal, he pushes the shot out forward a little, but he gets it off quickly and doesn’t seem bothered by contests. 56% on 2s, seems to be above average for a guard who takes a good amount of midrange jumpers. Finishing is mostly a positive, one of the few prospects in this draft who truly can finish with either hand. Primarily a lefty but good touch on his right. Seems like he could be a good end-of-clock option considering he thrives as a tough shot maker. Improved as a finisher around the basket, not great but length is an asset, along with the threat of his shot. Gives him some relatively easy looks. Also a good passer, not great, but has P&R upside. Really good at finding the roll man. Can actually create some possessions as a passer, usually just finds the open man but has made some cross court passes and impressive drive and kick plays. 31.7 AST% and a 1.68 AST/TO ratio really backs up his reputation as a blossoming playmaker. Some sneaky cutting ability. Has the profile to be a good defender, when the effort is there he’s good. Length helps a ton, able to move his feet well. Plays the passing lanes well. Overall hard to get a glimpse from the games I watched, seems like he wasn’t challenged much.

Long 6’5 frame with long arms, good size for a “point guard.” Really skilled, cerebral player. Most of his offensive value comes from his shooting - 44% from 3, 82.5% from the line, and a 65.5% TS, one of the 3 highest in this class. Just a confident, consistent 3 point shooter who could shoot off the dribble just as easily as off the catch. Really nice footwork when catching, comes off the hop, clean, pointed toes at the rim. Also is efficient at shooting off jab steps and in sort of iso situations, just a very balanced shooter. Leverages his jumper with a phenomenal pump fake, gets guys in the air consistently, no wasted motion. With his shot comes a lot of pull-up 2s, shot 37.5% on 9.5% assisted, good but not great. Has a variety of step-backs and fades to get his points there. Relatively strong self-creator. Keeps a tight handle, relies on it to get to the basket where he shot 71.5% at the rim. He can be a true offensive point because he excels in P&R as well. His Synergy stats are insane, in the top percentile of running the P&R and the second percentile in guarded C&S, etc. Second to his shooting, his decision making is his best quality. He just makes very few mistakes with the ball. AST/TO ratio is almost 2.5, over 5 assists a game, always in control. Keeps his head on a swivel, just very, very good at reading and reacting. If he finds a mismatch he attacks it, swings the ball for open shots, locates shooters, everything you could want in a player. I love his off-ball movement, knows when to drift corner or float up, screen down, etc. Just feels the game on another level. That extends to defense, although on an unfortunately lesser scale. Still reads, reacts, rotates. Watches two guys. When guarding on an island does a good job of mirroring and staying with his guy, not the lightest feet but they get the job done. Length helps a lot too. Also a better athlete than he looks, has some vertical pop to him you don’t think about.

Troy Brown is a coach’s dream. Not even 19 yet, one of the youngest players in the draft. 6’7 frame with a 6’10 wingspan. Really strong although doesn’t look it. Only shooting 29% from three but over time should improve considering solid foundational mechanics and abilities to shoot off the dribble, which shows a lot of confidence. Has a good-looking release, catches off the hop, fluid, albeit slow. 74% on FTs, ~35% from midrange on 70% unassisted - has potential in that area. Fantastic touch on floaters and in-between shots, really high conversion rate. Plays a lot of bully ball on his drives and inside the paint, really gets into his defender and pushes him out of the way. Shows his feel by cutting, screening, and generally making a positive impact on an offense. Great offensive rebounder, 1.5 per game, really requires a strong box out and defensive attention. Good passer, played PG in HS, over 3 assists per game. Quick decision maker, moves the ball. Limits mistakes and single-handedly creates plays and scoring opportunities. Likes to push the ball in transition and create in the open floor. Could potentially be a primary initiator instead of a secondary guy, really promotes roster versatility. I like his mirroring and movement skills a ton in in on-ball contexts, competes without fouling, sticks to his man, keeps his hands up. Very disciplined, under 3 fouls per 40 minutes. Really good instincts on that end of the floor, anticipatory on and off-ball. Adept at getting steals. Almost consistently good rotations, just really feels the game on the defensive end. Can potentially guard 2-3 and some 4s because of his strength and anticipation.

I was so high on Williams last year, even had him top 10. His physical gifts are unparalleled. Is one of the best athletes in the class irrespective of size, monster vertical off one or two feet, skies for putbacks, lobs, or rebounds. Quick into the jump, his explosion is real. Really impressive laterally as well, when engaged can defend on the perimeter exceptionally well, has the lower body power and finesse needed there, along with length. Hasn’t gone through public Combine testing so he was last measured at 6’10 with a 7’5.5 wingspan. Offensively Williams is really lacking in solid skills but has shown flashes of talent in all areas. Obviously his dynamism is evident, but has shown passing and shooting flashes. Makes some short roll reads, hit the other big with some drop-down passes and can hit perimeter shooters. Face-up game has improved, shot 40% on 2-pt jumpers this season. Even with these aforementioned flashes of skills, doesn’t use a lot of possessions offensively, knows his role. Great rebounder, over 9 a game, vertical explosion helps a ton. Can grab in traffic over bigger guys. Most of his value comes from defense, especially rim protection. 44 at rim blocks this season and he played most of this season as a 4. He has elite anticipation when he actually tries to block shots, also has 21 blocks on 2-pt jumpers and 10 blocks on threes (!!!). His steal numbers are strong as well, 1.8 per 100 possessions, good hands + quickness + anticipation is a good combination. I’ve talked about his lateral quickness, he can guard on the perimeter well when engaged. Most of his value is theoretical, and if he reaches his defensive peak of good perimeter D for a big along with rim protection, he can anchor a defense. On/Off numbers show A&M is much better when Williams is in at the 5 without Tyler Davis, which shows Williams is better as true center. I also think because of Davis, RobWill didn’t get to play his true position as a 5. If he could anchor a defense, he would not have to worry about guarding on the perimeter so often. His rim protection is more of a strength consistently.

7’1 in shoes with a 7’4 wingspan and a 9’3 standing reach. Video game like physical frame, just a freak. Agile moving around in space. Soft hands and good hand-eye coordination to catch tough passes. Actually runs like a gazelle, huge strides with great high-end speed. There’s no reason he should be have the fluidity to jump as high as he does or move as fast as he does. DeAndre Jordan-esque sort of athlete as a 7 footer, that is by far his most translatable NBA “skill” and compared to other go-to skills for top prospect it might be the best. Should translate immediately as a lob catcher and rebounder, along with strong rim protection. Showed some flashes of a jumper in high school with surprisingly decent results, nice high arc.Has been rumored to have worked on his jumper and handle recently, as Mike Gribanov explains here. Not sure how important that skill is compared to adding muscle and learning defensive fundamentals but I’m no trainer nor should I be criticizing improvement. Great timing when blocking shots, most of it is due to just being bigger than his high school competition but even led the EYBL in blocks per 36 minutes. Speaking of EYBL, played well against other top competition and was right up there with the other bigs in his class like Bagley, Ayton, Carter, Bamba, etc. You could argue he was more dominant than any of them. If you can get him in the right system and demonstrate patience with his development, he can become an incredible impact player. Also, there’s no questions about his work ethic considering he’s been working on his skills a ton since dropping out of WKU.

6’7 forward with a 7’4 wingspan(!!!) and uses every bit of it. Much improved shooter from all over the floor with an incredibly high release point. Only shot 36% from 3 but 79.4% from the line and 44% from 2 point jumpers, top 20 percentile according to Synergy. Speaking of Synergy, rates as above average in nearly all scoring situations outside of iso scoring (not his play type) and guarded catch-and-shoot (in which he barely missed). Therefore, most of his scoring indicators are good, and his length + release intersection should allow for him to make similar shooting splits once he gets his feet wet at the NBA level. Uses head fakes and shifty crossovers to make up for his lack of quickness. Solid finisher, has good touch with a nice righty floater and his length is super useful around the basket and getting to the line. Can post up, use his length to score inside or face up and shoot over top His passing is solid, the 98th percentile according to Synergy in creating for others. Offensively brings a lot to the table and projects as someone who’s skills would extend to an off-ball role. Defensively he’s also really solid, understanding team concepts and rotating. He hits the 3 R’s I look at: he reads, he reacts, and he rotates. He defends the point of attack well because of his length, his contests are incredible and he rarely fouls. His shot-blocking is legitimate and one of the best for a wing prospect in recent years. Solid rebounder and transition defender. Doesn’t take anything off the table. Team is .3 points per possession better with him on the court which shows his value.

The two key NBA caliber qualities in Knox are his frame and his shooting. He’s lanky as hell, standing at 6’9 with a 7’0 wingspan. Only weighs 215 pounds, but he has wide shoulders and I’m confident he can fill out, bulk up, and look like an NBA wing. Next is his shooting. I really love his stroke and release, stays balanced and keeps his release super high. With that, he’s unafraid to shoot with a hand in his face because he knows no one is blocking him. Splits at 34% from 3 on 5.6 attempts per game with 77% from the line, which aren’t inspiring at first glance but coupled with his high size and confidence gives hope that he can be a true specialist one day. Demands a lot of gravity running around screens and requires a lot of defensive attention. 42% on 2pt jumpers, well above average especially for his size. Really comfortable getting to his pull-up. Has a “hot zone” from the right elbow extended, that’s his spot. Has a super consistent right-handed push/shot floater, a few times Cal ran plays for Knox to get to that shot when they needed a bucket. Definitely improved as the season went on, became Kentucky’s crunch time scorer for the SEC tournament and first few games of the tournament. Defense is pretty meh but his length is clearly his best asset, relatively quick feet to stay close to guys. Kentucky guys in the NBA usually show skills in the league that you don’t see much in college (Booker, Towns). One of the youngest guys in the class, will be younger than 19 on draft day.

Carter’s offensive skillset revolves around his shooting profile. ~86% from the line, 39% from 3. Is adept at getting his threes, whether it be a pull-up or off the catch. 39.6% on two point jumpers with only 15% assisted shows his improvement as a creator. Always keeps his dribble alive, very heady point guard who has improved at running the show. 11 assists per 100 possessions with an AST/TO ratio of 2.61 are huge upgrades over previous numbers, goes to show real progress being made on his game. Really became a true PG who initiated the offense after starting as more of a combo guard. Has some P&R upside I’ve seen, no high-level instincts but can be a tertiary or even secondary playmaker in the NBA, top 3 percentile according to Synergy. The two things that jump out about Carter’s defense is his consistent effort and physicality. I’ve never seen a guy who plays 35 minutes a game and maintains such a high level of effort. He face-guards and presses and bothers the opposing guards the entire game and never seems to get tired. Highest STL% of any NBA-caliber guard in the last 4 years. A lot of that is the system, sure, but he’s a really good defensive guard. He’s used to denying and jumping passing lanes, which I think can be useful to some teams in certain contexts. In more legitimate perimeter situations, his aggression is apparent. He stays stride-for-stride with his man, mirrors well, and uses his physicality and strength to keep his opponent off balance. Really good at getting a piece of ball when the offensive player is driving without fouling. Very aggressive when confronted with mandatory switches, can use his physicality to stay with bigger guys although definitely not ideal. Advanced stats love him, really impressive intersection of win shares and BPM. #1 in NBAMath’s total points added metric.

The first thing to talk about with Kenrich is his feel. He’s just got a next-level combination of hand-eye coordination, decision making, and court awareness. Nearly 2:1 AST/TO ratio combined with great read & react movements and mindset. Keeps track of where all other nine players are. Has a lot of the fundamental technique stuff down, off-ball offensive movements, shooting off the hop, etc. His shooting progressed over the years, hit 39.5% from 3 from his senior season. Looked decisive in getting his shot, little hesitation. Has a little bit of bully ball to him, Dixon loved to get him post-up touches in offensive sets. From there, could pass out to open shooters on doubles or back down and finish in traffic. Really really good rebounder, a lot of it with him is technique. Strong physical box outs. One of his best skills. On defense does a fantastic job of locating the ball and his man, stays in position. A very active defender, with his rebounding mindset he’s always moving and especially boxing out big men if TCU’s big went to contest. Not many guys do that. Makes up for athleticism by always staying on his feet and keeping his base centered and legs wide so he can afford to react a little slower. Knows he can’t stick with good athletes when defending on-ball so he’s elite at mirroring, matches guys step for step.

He does all the things that don’t end up in box scores, and all the things coaches love. 6’7.5 forward with a 7 foot wingspan who hustles his ass off. Advanced stats LOVE him - Led all Division 1 basketball players in WS/40, BPM, DRTG. #3 in NBAMath’s Total Points Added metric. Player most similar to Draymond Green in college (determined by Jackson Hoy’s Draft Database, linked to in the opening). His defensive instincts continue to impress me every time I watch them. He’ll have games where he’ll switch onto a guard and block them at the rim (22 blocks at the rim), and then the next time down he reads a passing lane and starts the break (2.6 stocks, 2.1 fouls per game). He knows he can’t consistently stick with small guards on the dribble so he does a decent job mirroring and moving his feet quickly. Also another one of his skills is closing out, he blocked 8 3 pointers this year. He was the anchor of Cincinnati’s insane defense because he could do everything on that end of the floor. Also, it’s not like he was a slouch on offense. 43.5% from 3 on over an attempt and a half per game, 74% from the line, 43% on 2 pt jumpers with only 35% assisted. He’s an efficient shooter this season, he hasn’t been one his whole career but his jump shot looks good and now it’s a weapon. Post-up game is solid, most of his offensive possession involve posting up. Top 30 percentile, can abuse switches and smaller guys. I also love his passing, knows where and when to move the ball and does not turn it over, had an AST/TO ratio of 2.11.

Spellman is a big who excelled in Jay Wright’s open 5-out system, and will continue to excel with NBA spacing. Athletically, his best attribute is his vertical, which he uses to sky for block shots or power through traffic for dunks. As a freshman, Spellman shot 43% from 3 on almost 4 attempts per game, along with shooting almost 42% from the NBA line according to TheStepien’s shot chart. He is a consistent shooter who gets into his shot off the catch fluidly and never shies away from open shots. Has an effective post game and can score on bigs with a strong right hook. Surprising upside as scorer considering his handle, less than 50% of his shots at the rim were assisted and less than 45% of his 2 point jumpers were assisted. Can attack closeouts well for a big man. Another thing you notice about Spellman is his offensive IQ. He’s sets strong screens and recognizes mismatches and exploits them. Has shown flashes of passing vision, hitting shooters on doubles or finding cutters. Defensively, Spellman always competes hard and gives a consistent effort, just like all other Villanova players do. Can draw charges. Most of his defense is built around that. Much maligned for his perimeter defense but when I have watched he’s never been a complete liability. High IQ and plus positioning, engaged effort, and potential shot blocking while trailing all help to mitigate these concerns. For a freshman, doesn’t mess up too many rotations. Post defense is solid because of his frame, really stays anchored and doesn’t give up ground. Active hands in P&R. 3 blocks and over 16 rebounds per 100 possessions due in large part to good timing and instincts along with vertical explosion. NBA executives want guys from Nova for a reason.

Jay Wright called Divincenzo the Michael Jordan of Delaware for a reason. Explosive athlete, insane vertical off two feet, especially from a standstill. Has bursts of acceleration and quickness too, although not in the same way as his The hero of the national title game with 31 points, Donte is a scorer first and foremost. He’s got the green light off the bench, shooting 40% from 3 on over 7 attempts per 40 minutes. Second-most 25+ foot 3s of any prospect in this class at 43, and shot nearly 41% on them. Seems to prefer shooting off the dribble, top 10 percentile in pull-up shooting according to Synergy, which is his honestly his go-to shot attempt. Not afraid to shoot with a hand in his face, about 38% from three on guarded catch-and-shoot jumpers if I’m understanding his Synergy numbers correctly. Isolation and end-of-clock scoring potential if he refines his handle. Attacks closeouts very well, usually moves the ball but can attack the basket where his numbers show he’s an above average finisher. Playing under Coach Wright has definitely improved his basketball IQ, AST% has went up significantly all three years and currently boasts an AST/TO ratio of 1.76. Really uses vertical athleticism as a rebounder in traffic, it’s impressive, just under 5 rebounds per game as 6’4 guard. His defense is all about activity, he never stops moving. Good at altering shots due to his leaping ability. Makes some great rotations and has the athletic profile to switch relatively well and the effort is always there. NBA executives want guys from Nova for a reason.

6’6 wing with 7’2 wingspan, length is off the charts and used functionally in game. Athleticism too, good vertical pop with extreme lateral movement. Extreme improvement on the offensive end going into his junior year. As a shooter, went from 26.7% from 3 last year to 39.5% this year on a slightly higher usage rate, along with 41.7 percent on 48 NBA-range 3s. It’s not an aesthetically pleasing jump shot but he is confident and unafraid shooting it, with a high release. Has improved as a finisher every year at Tulane, last season went from 61% to 71% at the rim. This new number is in the 85th percentile according to TheStepien shot chart and 94th percentile in play finishing according to Synergy. Doesn’t have elite touch but really good at finishing due to his arm length and improved left hand. Willing passer at almost 3 assists per game where although he can’t really consistently create for others, definitely is able to make the smart pass and get an open look. Has some self-creation to him, a little PnR ability, probably a secondary handler. Possesses some isolation dribble moves to create separation and get to the basket. Most of Frazier’s NBA potential lies in his defense. 2.2 steals per game and 0.8 blocks with a high activity level. Super impactful defensive player as primary on-ball defender. Has all the tools you could possibly want there: long arms, quick feet, high motor, willingness to defend. Really good at getting hands on the ball in iso settings without fouling If he can add solid bulk to his frame which most players do with time he could be really special. Doesn’t rely on length as recovery tool, proactive in preventing defending from behind. Very instinctive on that end of the floor, whether it be closing out, helping, guarding over or under screens, etc. When he’s allowed to roam on defense instead of having to lock down a perimeter player, provides so much value. Hunts passing lanes, rotates freely, and generally wrecks havoc.

Has all of the requisite skills to be considered a star one day. Impressive 6’9 wingspan. Clear self creator and scorer which is the key skill to become a superstar in the NBA. Great shooter who can pull it off the bounce or catch. Excels with the ball in his hands, can get whatever shots he wants no matter the competition. Quick release and quick trigger, can shoot no matter the contest which is a good sign. Catches the ball of the hop well, his footwork is pretty good for an 18 year old. Has a sort of shifty smoothness to him with the ball in his hands, and I always think that has some to do with confidence. Has a great floater and it’s his go-to shot in the paint. Prefers going right but not bad with his left. Has all the tools defensively, it’s just consistency and effort and awareness. Elite level vertical quickness offensively, defensively reacts quickly too but not on the same level.

Ideal shooting profile, 89% from the line and 43% from 3. Has a sweet lefty release, not afraid to shoot with a hand in his face. Really useful pump fake, and quick with attacking right after. Surprisingly adept at getting his shots up off the dribble, usually pulls off his left after a head fake. When he does attack downhill and goes towards the rim, loves to suck in the help D and make the drop pass to the big. Makes some relatively high level passes, can attack off pin-downs and throw lob passes or kick outs to shooters. Despite his strong passing acumen, he still manages to limit mistakes, 3:1 AST/TO ratio. When he doesn’t have the ball, he’s still a threat to hurt a team. Moves well without the basketball, sets screens, and quick to get into his shooting motion. Ran PG for Virginia for some stretches. With all that being said, his defense is very impressive as well. Hall was Virginia’s best and most consistent perimeter defender. Moves his feet so well, expert at flipping hips and riding with his man. But really strong team defense instincts, bumping the roll man, stunting, covering two guys, all of that is just instinctive for him. Really good at contesting shots, takes smart angles and does his best to change the shot attempt. Not as bad of an athlete as he’s made out to be, has some more burst than you’d expect.

Long frame at 6’9 with a 7’0 wingspan. Evolved his game over the years at Purdue. Offensively, he has been very effective in spot-up and off-screen situations (99th percentile on spot-ups, his most used play type and 87th percentile off-screens as of January). No doubt his most effective NBA tool is his shot but offers a few added skills. FT% of 83.3 and 3P% of 39.8 prove solid mechanics and fluid release. Has some craft when driving in a lot of ways, knows he will never blow by guys but he can finish over them on occasion. I’ve seen a few fadeaways/hook shots that originate from drives that fail this way. Moves super well without the ball, was in a great college system to maximize his talents and BBIQ. Willing passer at 3 assists per game and AST/TO ratio at 1.42. Not great numbers, but seems to make strong decisions with the ball without forcing. Defensively does a good job using size, length, and positioning to not get beat too often. High IQ helps him on that end.

Bonga’s got such a tantalizing skillset for the modern NBA. Basically, Bonga can be a 6’9 play initiator with a 7’0 wingspan who is shooting 92% from the line at 18 years of age on draft day. Starting with his shooting, 92% from the line shows a tremendous amount of accuracy and confidence. That currently doesn’t apply to the three-point because of his really slow release but with a good shooting coach or developmental program there’s a chance he can become a strong asset from out there. When he has the time and space to step into his shot the results are promising, good makes. He can also put the ball on the deck in P&R situations and attack the basket where he’s shown some touch, especially on floaters utilizing his length. His gait and long legs help him get through small openings and avoid big men at the basket. However, scoring is not Bonga’s best offensive skill; it’s his passing. Although the stats do not tell the whole story at 2.5 assists per game and a ~19% AST%, Bonga has really spectacular court vision for his age. Makes some passes as a true initiator, orchestrating a P&R, manipulating the defense, and getting the ball to the roll man. Delivers pinpoint passes to shooters or bigs on duck-ins. Loves to attack in transition, has a little more gas when attacking a 3-on-2 or 2-on-1 than his athletic profile would suggest. Handle isn’t bad, even for a 6’9 guy playing point guard it doesn’t detract from his game. IQ seems incredible for his age. Defense is predicated on potential versatility. Could theoretically guard 1-4 and not kill a defense if you assume a modest amount of improvement. Gives a good amount of effort. Not a fruitful exercise but if you extrapolate his STL% and BLK% and compare it to college guards his numbers are incredible. Like I said, it’s not a telling number, but gives you an idea of defensive activity level and dominance at his age.

6’5.5 with a 7’1 wingspan… for a potential point guard? Mind-blowing. So much of his value is related to his size and it’s functional too, especially with his jump shot. Great statistical shooting profile, 84.7% at the line, 43.4% from 3, 45% on 2 point jumpers, along with 43% from NBA range, 87th percentile according to TheStepien’s shot chart. Uses every bit of his length on his jumper, consistently shoots over contests and bigger defenders (top 10 percentile in guarded C&S according to Synergy. Has some floaters/push shots off the dribble along with being able to score over contests. I’ll address his finishing in a bit but he is able to finish with his left pretty well, doesn’t need to utilize awkward spin moves or throw up difficult shots. His other offensive strength is his decision making. 1.92 AST/TO confirms his P&R upside as play initiator, but more than anything else he just limits his mistakes. Understands his limitations on a basketball court better than most and plays a controlled game. Doesn’t take anything away from the table. Defense is the same way. He is more fundamental as a defender, relies on technique and angles to defend in space rather than an elite lateral quickness which is more good than bad. Smart positionally on the defensive end, never really wows you but again doesn’t usually make mistakes. Good at reading simple dump off passes from guards when trailing and getting his hands in there to disrupt. On/off numbers show SMU has a better D Rtg when Milton is at the 2 with Jimmy Whitt, which is where he’s a better fit to play at in the NBA.

The best way for me to put this is that Khyri Thomas passes the eye test. 6’4 with a 6’10.5 wingspan but looks even bigger than that. Strong athlete with good quick feet. Effective and efficient scorer at all 3 levels, 41% from 3, 44% on 2pt jumpers, and a remarkable 79% at the rim. Adept at attacking closeouts and getting easy baskets. Gets his legs underneath him when he shoots, really gets balanced. In a really good system at Creighton that undoubtedly helped his offensive game, really looked to push the ball in transition. No doubt that will be similar to how NBA offense is played. Has the feel to keep moving when spotting up in weak side corner, usually just flares or exchanges. Has some post-up juice when being guarded by points and smaller guards, not the most efficient stuff but he’s aggressive in commanding the ball in those situations which could open up opportunities for others off doubles/kick-outs. Not really a point but has learned how to make the simple pass and keep an offense moving. Secondary P&R playmaker.His general defensive package is appealing. His length with that 6’10 wingspan affects shooters, and he uses every bit of it. Strong closeouts. In iso contexts he’s very good at shielding towards baseline instead of middle and forcing tough angles. Usually those plays lead to difficult floaters or in-air cross court passes. Does this while guarding the other team’s best guard. Anticipates actions and movements on the floor really well, swipes for ball on drives with relatively good results and for the most part mirrors effectively. Understanding of team defense concepts, makes great team rotations and stunts and recovers when he has to. One of the best college players in that regard.

Impressive length for a point guard, 6’7.5 wingspan despite only being 6'1. NBA pedigree with his brother Jrue dominating for the Pelicans. Good athlete, has some burst to him and decent high-end speed. Efficient role increase from backup behind Ball/Alford to starter and number 1 option, along with really efficient scoring numbers. 83% from the line, 43% from the line. Can shoot off the dribble in a variety of situations, off the pick and roll, attacking a closeout, etc. Very simple and quick release, little wasted movement. Excels as a spot-up 3 point shooter, every year has graded as Excellent in those situations according to Synergy. 58% at the rim is below average but 90% of the shots are self-created so I’ll give him a pass, obviously very good at getting to the rim. Keep in mind these efficiency increases coincided with him taking on a greater creation burden and running PG. Not afraid to attack bigger guys, can finish with either hand, draws fouls. Just has one of the best scoring profiles in this draft. Just so heady with the ball, keeps the defender behind him, gets to his spots. Improved as a passer in the P&R, can create for self and others but mostly his self. Loves to split. I’ve noticed he’s a better passer when he drives, he moves the ball and makes the simple pass on the perimeter but when he drives he really has his head up to try to find a shooter. Quick hands defensively, one of the better guards in the class at getting his hands on the ball and impacting a drive. I like his effort level when he’s locked in, he really hustles and locks in when his team needs him to. Fights through screens, is aggressive, plays like he has a chip on his shoulder. This extends to off-ball defense, usually smart with positioning and rotating.

To start with his frame, a 6’9 18 year old wing prospect gives him a great size advantage as compared to his peers. His shooting has the potential to be great, he is a score-first wing who does not lack confidence. Shooting >75% at the line which shows reliable and consistent mechanics. You have to hope his shooting percentage numbers will improve over time because he’s got a ton of ancillary shooting skills with it. He can shoot it off screens, off the dribble going left or right, with deep range, deep range, everything you could want in a shooting profile. Can get to the basket on the back of his shot fake by attacking closeouts, and from there isn’t afraid of finishing through the trees. Not an extremely good finisher but knows how to leverage his length and shooting ability. If no room to attack, comfortable in midrange too between floaters and pull-ups. Has a reliable handle too, won’t kill a defense in an iso setting but can create his shot with ease. Left-handed hesitation dribble is his go-to move, shows a very surprising amount of explosion. Because of his handle has ran a good number of P&Rs with mixed results. Doesn’t exactly look to pass, ideally looks for his own shot, but occasionally reads doubles and hits roll man. We’ll surely get to his defense in a little bit, but I’ve noticed a few positives. Not always lacking as a team defender, can read some rotations well and react. Knows to bump the roll man, when to cover two, how to effectively watch ball and man. He doesn’t always do these things, but at least he has shown the IQ is there.

Good size for a wing at 6’6 with a 6’9 wingspan. NBA pedigree. He might be the best overall shooter in this class, 87.6% from the line and 40.2% from 3, 41% from the NBA line. His gravity was so important to this Duke team just because it prevented teams from doubling Bagley or Carter. That’s going to be his role in the NBA. Utilizes a great shot fake as well. Obviously lethal in C&S situations, top 15 percentile in adding off-ball value. Can shoot coming off curls and other action, usually from midrange in the flow of their offense but this will almost definitely apply to 3s as well with time. If the initial drive/action fails, comfortable using a stepback or pull-up jumper. Always looks to score in those situations, very aggressive in getting his shot. Had a positive net overall for Duke and just because of how important his shooting is.

6’8 with a 7’3.5 wingspan, size is a legitimate plus. Hervey’s had remarkable college production, Sun Belt POY as a junior and 20 points per game this year. All-time rebounds leader at UTA and second in scoring despite missing half of his sophomore year. Shooting profile is appealing at his size, 34% from 3, 81% from the line. Very clean, smooth release with no wasted movement and extreme confidence in his abilities. Has shown proclivity as shotmaker off the dribble, knows how to leverage his size to shoot over the top of the defense and can get into his shot with ease. More willing passer than the stats show, capable ball mover but a shot taker first and foremost. Good rebounder, over 2 offensive and 6 defensive rebounds per game, size and game plan are two main factors as to why. Defense can be good in time, has flashes of potential switchability. I’ve seen some positive man D moments, light feet and swallowing length, UTA trusted him to defend dynamic guards on occasion. Defensive IQ is good on-ball, smart sense of anticipation. Surprising steal numbers as a primary 4.

The clear positive with Alkins is his frame. 6’4 with a 6’9 wingspan at 217 pounds. When you look at him, he looks the part of an NBA basketball player. Able to bulldoze guys at the college level. He also has a solid baseline in all relevant categories for an NBA player. Solid foundational scoring profile - 36% from 3, 72.5% from the line, 64.6% at the rim. Good finisher there, can make 1 or 2 tough finishes in traffic through contact because of his physical profile and strength. He’s got solid passing instincts, can move the ball, create off the dribble, run some P&Rs with mostly solid results. Finished in the top 5% percentile of pick-and-roll passing, albeit in limited attempts. Has a super high-arcing floater which is an important skill to have. Defensively, he impresses both in on and off-ball contexts. On-ball, his combination of lateral agility moving his feet and his frame+wingspan make him a terror for opposing guards with a lot of possibility for switching in the flow of an NBA game. Off-ball, his instincts are fine, often knows the correct place to be when locked in, intuitive positionally.

6’11.5 with a 9 foot standing reach. Lynchpin to the Michigan team as the won the B1G and made it to the championship game. Integral to their improved defense and their consistent offense. I love his mentality, kind of plays like Psycho T where he wants to fight everyone against him. Those kind of crazy competitors always impress teams with their tenacity. Possesses a ton of offensive skills. To start with his shooting, 39.4% from 3, 37.7% on 2pt jumpers with only 37.5% assisted on a solid repeatable shooting stroke. Projects as a stretch big man, plus those 2pt jumper splits show that he is comfortable shooting off the dribble, rare for a big man. Strong finisher at the rim, 79%, doesn’t rely on athleticism there it’s a strange combination of finesse and brute force. The offensive skill I like the most in him is his pump fake, he leverages that momentary hesitation and can attack closeouts really well for a big. His passing improved every year, was a complete non-passer but slowly improving. His defense has been heavily criticized this season but he’s gotten better as the season goes on, he tries really hard. He’s always talking, moving, watching. Couldn’t really afford to foul very often because Michigan needed him on the floor, so at the next level maybe he could be more aggressive. Athleticism is solid, his mobility and effort are his best defensive qualities, and that might be able to shore up a lot of holes.

Newman is a prototypical shooting guard. Athletic wing who can shoot the ball, attack the rim, and defend a little. Not afraid of anyone or anything, someone who rises to the moment. Good lateral agility with quick feet. Strong frame, has definitely bulked up a ton since transferring. He has finally shown the shooting ability he should have - 83.5% from the line and 41.5% from 3. His midrange splits are great too, 38.8% on jumpers and only 16.1% assisted. Has shown the knack to be a great scorer off the dribble and that self-creation skill, (his self-creation score is rated very highly in my database) is supremely valuable. Has became much more comfortable shooting off the catch, along with an ability to attack closeouts and relocate to get open off-ball. Good finisher, could be better, but solid athlete to at least get to the basket. 59.8% at the rim is below average but only 25.7% assisted, that’s still above average as a self-finisher in my database. Defensively is a mixed bag, sometimes he plays hard and is engaged and shows that lateral movement ability but other times is just lost. NBADraftNet cites a strong work ethic and love for the game which I believe is a very important aspect for player development.

Has all of the physical tools you could want from a point guard. Great passing instincts, can run an offense, has great athletic ability, can clamp up point of attack. Can utilize the P&R to get any shot he wants especially with his athletic burst. Able to blow by his guy and attack the basket in iso situations. Improved as the season went on as a shooter, still not a marksman by any means but felt confident enough to shoot shots when he was open. Speaking of, he’s very confident in himself. The type of player who at the college level could make some plays that I don’t think anyone else could. Whether it be jump a passing lane after a defensive rebound by the other team and convert an and-1 layup or burn by his man with an in-and-out dribble and finish over 3 guys with some acrobatics, he’s capable of legitimately anything on a basketball court. Defensively has all of the tools as well. Great length and uses it effectively, quick hands to pickpocket drivers, willingness to try hard and the competitiveness to go with it. Projects to be one of the better guard defenders with some technique refinement. Doesn’t let his previous mistakes get in his head and alter his decisions, just continues to plug away and never shies away from the moment.

Good shooter at 37% who was the lynchpin for Duke’s offense the last three years. Top 20 in OBPM. Great free throw shooter consistently, above 80% every year. Historic college player who showed improvement throughout his career, which makes me think he will only continue to improve at the next level. Has a quick release, one of those where you can tell he’s been working on it by not bringing it below his waist. A great shot fake to go with it. Went from a good athlete/hustle player with some skills his freshman year to a solid shooter and occasional creator, which to me shows his work ethic. Hit many tough shots. Decent athlete and an above average finisher, his floater has improved a lot too. Has a tiny bit of shiftiness when driving inside with eurosteps and off-footed stuff, not much but a little bit. Improved a ton as a passer as well, has an AST/TO ratio of above 2. He ran a lot of point for Duke this year and was pretty good at it. Led Duke in net rating, probably has a lot to do with their roster makeup honestly. Defensively has been his crux but he’s never been poor, just about average I would say.

6’7.75 wing, great size. Going to be 21 on draft day which is young for a senior. Good vertical leaper, can get up higher than you’d expect. His NBA potential is almost solely due to his shooting. 44% from 3 and 80% from the line shows he’s a real, legitimate marksman. Shot 46% from NBA 3 point range, that’s in the 93rd percentile. Loves shooting from the corners/extended elbows. Not afraid to attack the rim and attack bigger guys, plays fearlessly. Great at getting the ball to the post and rotating it offensively. Really good at relocating off the ball. Shows good effort when he doesn’t have the ball, attacks the glass for offensive rebound opportunities. Defensively is a mixed bag, I laud his consistent effort. He always competes, can guard bigger guys for stretches just by being physical and trying to front. It’s not always pretty, but it shows determination. Pretty surprising defensive instincts, seems confident in his rotations and always is aware of ball and man. Has been playing professional basketball since he was 16 in Ukraine.

Robinson is on the court to score the basketball first and foremost. His shooting numbers are unconscionable. He’s scoring 24 per game in conference play on 44.5% from 3 and 66.6% TS. Comfortable shooting off the dribble or off-the-catch. Very good at relocating off-the-ball, finds open space and makes kick-out passes very easy for drive-and-kick passers (almost exclusively Bowman). He can score consistently from the free throw line against zones, he’s really lethal from there but only looks to score. Strong, effective stroke with no wasted movement. Never seems bothered by great contests, if anything looks to draw and-1s. I’ve seen him make some impressive passes off drives where he sucks in the defense and delivers the ball to the open man. Has some solid recognition skills when moving without the ball, keeps a head count of where defenders are and delivers the ball where it needs to go. His on-ball defense has impressed me, physical and aggressive. Doesn’t back down from a challenge, usually guarding the other team’s best perimeter guy. Even though his feel is sort of a question mark to me, really seems to be able to pinpoint what times he has to lock in defend and when he can float off a poor shooter. Against Duke, when covering Duval brings pretty smart help and plugs some gaps. Also, I have in my notes that he’s a better athlete than he looks, which I’ve realized is true in some respects but I think it’s because he moves like he’s the slowest guy on the floor. In actuality, BC would run lob plays for him on occasion, and he would get up and power down some tough dunks.

Positionless big who can shoot, drive, pass, and defend. Mid-major sleeper coming from Marshall where he played in an NBA-ready, 5-out system for head coach Dan D’Antoni. Decent scoring ability, 34% from 3 on 1.7 3’s per 100 possessions, 42.6% on two point jumpers. I like, not love, his mechanics despite his slow release, it’s very fluid. Can attack off the dribble on a closeout, has a surprisingly useful handle, can become a tool. 73.7% around the rim, 89.7th percentile in finishing non-post-up’s, which shows a smart player who can make up for his length of strength and athleticism. I think his potential value comes from P&R decision-making. A very willing and capable passer, can make high-level passes to shooters, behind the back dump-off passes, has the whole arsenal. 96.8th percentile in passes to spot-up shooters as the roll man of a P&R, which I would imagine is part of his future value, but only has 7 possessions in that role. Comfortable rolling or popping depending on the situation, so he just reads how his man defends the P&R and adjusts accordingly. Likes to play some point forward, bring the ball up court. Was the fulcrum of Marshall’s defense due to his rim protection and mobility. Unbelievable shot blocker with a super long frame, averaging 7 blocks per 100 possessions, most in the NCAA! Even averages 1.7 steals per 100. Good closing speed on blocks at the rim, makes up a surprising amount of ground. Significantly improved his block to foul numbers, averages 7 blocks and 6 fouls per 100 possessions. Knows he can’t out-physical bigs when rebounding so he’s gotten better and smarter at tap-outs.

Measured at 6’5 with a 6’7 wingspan at the Combine, surprising numbers for him and solid for a shooting guard. Unbelievably gifted college scorer, averaged ~15 points per game every year. Excels at creating and scoring with the ball in his hands. Has a knack for hitting big shots. Synergy stats rate him superbly (top 10%) in a ton of offensive self-creation statistics, which shows that his offense is on the verge of being historic. My own self-creation metric has him as the second best creator of the past 4 years, behind only Jalen Brunson. Shooting 45% from NBA range according to TheStepien’s shot chart so moving to the further line shouldn’t be a problem. Great touch around the basket with floaters and other off-putting shots, makes up for the athletic deficiencies. Has some plus passing ability, doesn’t project to be a primary creator but he’s willing to move the ball for a good shot. He’s definitely improved as a driver looking for the pass, still not his first instinct but he can make a few nice kick outs and get guys open looks. Plays hard offensively, aggressive, really hunts his shot, isn’t shy about shooting. Quick hands on/off-ball, one of the better guys at stunting towards a driver and impacting the play somehow. IQ is pretty decent off-ball only when really engaged, can cover two guys, rotate in a team construct. Has the highest plus-minus and net rating on the team, so he was the player most conducive to winning basketball, not Alkins or Ayton.

Main selling point for Vanderbilt is athleticism and coordination intersection for a 6’9 forward with a 7’1 wingspan. One of the most fluid athletes in the class in all facets of the game, can glide down the court with the ball on a string or explode from a standstill for a rebound or putback. Never appears clumsy or goofy or too athletic for his own good, his athleticism is consistently put to good use. Gives 110% effort on the court, and it’s abundantly apparent in his rebounding numbers. 18.5 total rebounds per 40 minutes, 7.7 of them offensive. 23.1 ORB% is highest in NBA prospects the last 4 years (second best is John Collins with 16.4). He was probably helped by a small sample size and limited minutes but his motor doesn’t quit. I mentioned his fluidity and it’s apparent in transition. Vanderbilt is of the grab-and-go variety with the ball but he actually has the handle to make it work when attacking the basket. Shifty dribbler with a spin move to get to his left and a good amount of dribble moves. Got to the line a ton, FTr of 55.9 just due to his effort. Passing vision to match, likes to make the high-low pass to the big near the basket. Relishes playing defense, and his motor is consistent on this end of the floor. Uses long and sturdy frame well to challenge shots but mostly relies on quickness to stay in front of smalls. Mostly his defense is built on activity and athleticism, so it’s good at the college level. If he remains coachable and learns the ins-and-outs of helping and rotating for a full healthy season he can be a defensive anchor of sorts for a team.

6’6 wingspan impressed me, solid wingspan may make up for below average height. Insane minutes load, dude has been a consistently great player and played almost 1500 minutes. Graham’s offense is predicated on his jump shot, 40% from 3, 83% from the line. Consistently punished guards who went under on his screens, only 60% of his 3s were assisted. He has a good creation profile, as a playmaker for others or himself. 6th in assists per game at 7.2 with a 2.6 AST/TO ratio, capable of running the show and finding others. Top 2 percentile in the P&R as a ball handler, including top percentile in P&R passes to spot-up shooters. That’s a skill that will absolutely translate to the next level. Very tight reliable handle, always controls the pace of the game even when someone like Carter is guarding him. Really exhibits the qualities of a true PG despite playing off-ball last season. Pretty good at drawing fouls, FTr is above average for NBA-caliber guards but nothing elite. Absolutely insane unassisted creation burden, only 5% of his midrange jumpers and 4% of his shots at the rim were assisted. His defense is good in some contexts, high IQ for the most part to not get beat. Doesn’t take much off the table outside of size. I’m gonna say so because this is a short scouting report. Dude is a stone cold killer in clutch situations, probably one of the 3 best players in the country with under a minute left on the clock. Was dominant in the Big XII tourney and single-handedly beat Texas Tech to clinch the regular season crown. Insanely high net rating that is the second highest in the NCAA - Kansas is .34 points per possession better with him on the floor.

Diallo is currently what I consider a theoretical player in that his skills are not currently refined but due to archetype/athleticism/IQ he projects to make an impact with the right development. He has an impressive physical profile at 6’6 with a near 7 foot wingspan. His Combine numbers confirm his ridiculous athleticism, as both vertical numbers were top 8 among tested prospects, along with well above average numbers in the speed and quickness tests. His fluidity is also apparent, really good coordination and burst. Excels in transition, attacks off a block or steal and can rise quickly for an explosive dunk. 33.8% from 3, has some promise as a shooter. Gets to the rim at will, mostly looks to draw fouls, but has a handle good enough to get him there. Good cutter. Most of his current value comes on the defensive end as a potential lockdown guard defender due to his athletic ability. If he masters mirroring and proper disciplined technique he could turn into a very good defensive piece. Most of his off-ball value is just gambling honestly, with his quickness it has mixed results. Highest net rating on Kentucky, they are 12 points per possession better with him on the floor.